Macro at a Glance Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research 30 July 2026 | 5:23PM EDT

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan | To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click “Follow.” Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jenny Grimberg Changes to flag this week: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n Raised our Euro area peak core/headline inflation forecasts to 2.7%/3.4% (from Ashley Rhodes | 2.6%/3.1%, yoy) following the recent energy price rebound. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n Raised our 3/6/12m TOPIX index targets to 4200/4300/4500 (from 4100/4200/4400) to reflect the recent upward revision to our USD/JPY forecasts.

Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% yoy in 2026 amid headwinds from the rise in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East. We expect global core inflation to end the year at 2.8%, reflecting a fading tariff boost and further normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from energy price passthrough. n In the US, we expect moderate real GDP growth of 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting subdued consumer spending growth but a boost from the AI boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex. We expect core PCE inflation of 2.9% in December 2026 given the effects of tariffs, energy price passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling closer to 2% in 2027 as those effects subside. We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.4%. n We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest of 2026. n In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth of 0.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting resilient activity data but ongoing headwinds from elevated energy prices as well as subdued consumer confidence. We expect core inflation to rise to a peak of 2.7% yoy in 1Q27, reflecting energy price passthrough, before declining to 2.0% by end-2028. n We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in September to a peak policy rate of 2.5%, although the risks are skewed toward further tightening. n In China, we expect real GDP growth of 4.6% yoy in 2026, reflecting an increase in fiscal spending and still-resilient exports but headwinds from weak domestic

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Goldman Sachs Macro at a Glance

demand. We expect CPI/PPI inflation to rise to 1.0%/2.0% yoy this year largely owing to commodity price passthrough. n WATCH CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. The escalation and expansion of the conflict in the Middle East have further tilted the risks to energy prices to the upside, posing risks to global economies and markets.

Global GDP vs. CAI US GDP vs. CAI

10 2026: 2027: 10 2026: 2027: 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.2

Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy)

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

China GDP vs. CAI Euro area GDP vs. CAI

% Chg. China % Chg. Euro area 30

-20 Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Historical GDP (yoy) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) -30 -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy)

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.