Macro at a Glance Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research 19 August 2026 | 3:50PM EDT

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan | To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click “Follow.” Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jenny Grimberg Changes to flag this week: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC n No changes to flag this week. Ashley Rhodes | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Watching n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% yoy in 2026 amid headwinds from the rise in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East. We expect global core inflation to end the year at 2.8%, reflecting a fading tariff boost and further normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from energy price passthrough. n In the US, we expect real GDP growth of 2.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting subdued consumer spending growth but a boost from the AI boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex. We expect core PCE inflation of 2.9% in December 2026, boosted by the effects of tariffs, energy price passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling closer to 2% in 2027 as those effects subside. We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.2%. n We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% for the rest of 2026. n In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth of 0.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, reflecting resilient activity data but ongoing headwinds from elevated energy prices as well as subdued consumer confidence. We expect core inflation to rise to a peak of 2.7% yoy in 1Q27, reflecting energy price passthrough, before declining to 2.0% by end-2028. n We expect the ECB to deliver one more 25bp hike in September to a peak policy rate of 2.5%. n In China, we expect real GDP growth of 4.6% yoy in 2026, reflecting strong exports but headwinds from weak domestic demand. We expect CPI/PPI inflation to rise to 1.0%/2.0% yoy this year largely owing to commodity price passthrough. n WATCH CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST. The situation remains fluid amid swings between de-escalatory and escalatory headlines, and we will be closely

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Goldman Sachs Macro at a Glance

watching how oil flows through the region continue to evolve from here.

Global GDP vs. CAI US GDP vs. CAI

10 2026: 2027: 10 2026: 2027: 2.5 2.8 2.1 2.3

Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy) -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy)

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

China GDP vs. CAI Euro area GDP vs. CAI % Chg. China % Chg. Euro area 30

-20 Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) Historical GDP (yoy) Current Activity Indicator (mo, ann.) -20 Historical GDP (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy) Q2 2026 GDP (yoy) -30 -30 GS Q3 2026 GDP Estimate (yoy)

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Key GS economic and market forecasts Economics Markets Equities Interest rates 2026 2027 E2026 E2027 GDP growth (%) 10Yr (%) Last E2026 E2027 FX Last 3m 12m S&P 500 Returns (%) 12m YTD E2026 P/E GS Cons. GS Cons. GS Cons. GS Cons. GS Cons. (Q4/Q4) (Q4/Q4) (CY) (CY) (CY) (CY) Global US EUR/$ Price 8,000 S&P x

US Germany GBP/$ EPS $340 $363 $385 $408 MXAPJ 23 22 12.8x

China Japan $/JPY Growth 24% 32% 13% 12% Topix 9 21 19.9x

Euro area UK $/CNY STOXX x Credit Wage Tracker 2026 2027 Commodities Last 3Q26 4Q Policy rates (%) (bp) Last 3Q26 4Q26 Consumer 2026 (%) CPI Unemp. CPI Unemp. GS Mkt. GS Mkt. Crude Oil, Brent ($/bbl) 91 88 80 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (%, yoy) Rate (%, yoy) Rate US Nat Gas, NYMEX ($/mmBtu) USD IG 81 85 82 US -- --

Euro area Nat Gas, TTF (EUR/MWh) 63.75 60 53 HY Euro area 2.9 6.3 2.4 6.2 -- -- -- --

China -- Copper ($/mt) 14,235 13,600 13,700 EUR IG 90 91 88 China 1.0 -- 1.0 -- -- -- -- --

Japan Gold…