Market Intelligence US Morning Update

Equity Research 9 October 2026 | 8:24AM EDT

Market Intelligence: US Morning Update

Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call. Chris Hussey | Stocks in Asia were mixed Friday amidst little macro news, and closed the week Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

decidedly mixed as well. Hong Kong and India outperformed, while mainland China Sarah Herr | and Japan were flat. Taiwan and Korea were closed for a holiday. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Kshitij Garg European equities are trading higher following a decline in regional sovereign yields | Goldman Sachs India SPL and a bit of a pullback in oil prices.

US 10-yr treasury yields are a touch higher at 5.25% following their ~10bps decline yesterday.

Focus on: credit cracks. Amanda Lynam writes that a potential increase in rates volatility could decrease the demand for both IG and HY credit, pressuring spreads wider in “Macro Credit Views: The Big Three—Rates, Supply and Dispersion.” Key to watch: if growth remains firm, credit markets can absorb higher rates (in fact, higher rates may even attract some investors). But if other factors like sovereign risk or inflation cause rates to move higher, Credit could be pressured.

The curious case of high oil prices. We highlighted recently that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to 2025 levels (see Sep 29 note, “Oil Comment: Adaptation: Persian Gulf Exports Return to 2025 Level”), yet oil prices remain elevated. In today’s “Oil Analyst: Incorporating Global Stocks in Our Updated Price Model,” Yulia Grigsby attributes the higher oil prices to the decline in global visible stocks to near all-time lows.

n How do we model Brent spot? We view Brent spot as the sum of a long-run cost anchor and a timespread, then break that timespread into inventory effects, interest-rate carrying costs, and a residual risk premium. n What has changed? While OECD commercial stocks have historically been the best predictor of the Brent 1M/36M timespread, this year has challenged that relationship. We add non-OECD visible oil stocks to our model because very low global inventories outside OECD storage are now helping explain tighter pricing and restocking demand. Brent is carrying a near-record geopolitical risk premium, which could keep prices above fair value longer if diplomatic tensions do not ease.

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Goldman Sachs Market Intelligence

Looking Ahead Focus on the preliminary UMichigan Consumer Sentiment survey for October. In earnings, DAL reports before the open.

Performance of Global Indices (as of October 9, 2026)

Index % Change Asia Nikkei 225 0.0% Shanghai Composite 0.0% Hang Seng 1.8% Korea KOSPI 0.0% Taiwan TAIEX 0.0% SPI/ASX 200 0.6% Europe FTSE 100 1.1% DAX 1.3% CAC 40 0.9% Euro STOXX600 1.1% Source: FactSet, Bloomberg

Rating & Conviction List Changes (as of October 9, 2026)

ASIA Company Name Ticker Rating (New) Rating (Old) Asahi Kasei 3407.T  Neutral Buy Mitsui Chemicals Inc. 4183.T  Sell Neutral Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Today’s Events (October 9, 2026) 10:00 AM: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (GS 47.0, consensus 47.7, last 48.1); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, October preliminary (GS 3.4%, last 3.4%)

4:00 PM: Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks

US Morning Call for October 9, 2026: Click “here” to listen to the US Morning Call.

Energy, Mehta/Breno: Ten Stock Ideas We Are Constructive on Across Energy & Power Heading into the Fourth Quarter.

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In our fifth edition of Ten Ideas report, we highlight…