## Marketcolour + Momentum Colour / Geberit / BHP / TGS ##

## Marketcolour + Momentum Colour / Geberit / BHP / TGS ##

Good Morning, US equities were lower on Tuesday, finishing near worst levels as momentum struggled alongside broad AI weakness: SPX 69bps to 7691 (7/11 sectors -ve, SOX -5%, Energy +179bps, Healthcare +159bps, Info Tech -193bps), NDX -168bps to 29,490, RTY-130bps to 3017. The equal weight S&P posted modest +24bps outperformance. High Beta Momo (GSPRHIMO, -637bps) ended solidly in the red, as Memory (GSTMTMEM, -581bps) and broader AI (GSTMTAIP, -502bps) sold off – more below. In Europe, EU Semis (GSSBSEMI -7.1%, ASML NA -4.9%, IFX GY -7.6%) got hit. On the flip side, EU Big Oils (GSXEBOIE +1.6%) the standout outperformer.

Interesting: High Beta Momentum had more than >20 one day 5% sell offs YTD aka more than in the last 5 years combined...

Momentum: GS long/short pair down ~7% -> Top10 selloff in the last 5yrs (after +5% on Monday), driven by ‘wrong way’ price action in Semis (-6.5%) vs Software (+1%). Focus on Oil back to ~$90 and the Long End of the curve with US 30 yr yields through 5.3% (highest level since June’07).

Momentum Composition: The underlying composition of momentum is starting to shift. The overlap between 12-month winners and 3-month winners is at multi-year lows, and the overlap between 12- month winners and 3-month losers is near the highs. As a result, we are seeing our 3m momentum pair (GSPRHMO3) diverging from 12m Mo after trading largely in line YTD. This reflects how the two strategies are evolving differently and how market leadership could start shifting, especially if this dynamic starts to bleed into 6 month momentum as well. I.e. Software is now the largest weight in the long leg of 3m momo (GSXUHMO3) while being the largest weight in the short leg of 12m momo (GSXULMOM).

Flow: Our floor was a 2 on a 1-10 scale in terms of overall activity levels. Asset Mgr and HF skews titled for sale with overlapping supply in tech and macro products.

Token Costs - SDLLMTK Index: AI token costs are down -49% from their May level driven by Chinese models being a clear alternative to US peers.

Derivs: In July, the ETF + index options Put / Call Ratio hit a year-to-date high of 112%. The delta between ETF + index vs. single stock Put / Call Ratio has been increasing steadily since March of this

year, reaching +53% in favor of ETF + index aka Traders may be bullish on select single stocks while simultaneously hedging broader market exposure.

AI & Labour markets: Global AI-related hiring headwinds still appear confined to a narrow set of industries and workers. A 10% AI exposure score is associated with only a 0.1pp drag to annual occupational headcount growth in France, Canada, and the US, with negligible effects elsewhere. Link

Geberit: 2026 EPS is likely to see LSD upgrades following the 2Q26 beat and new guidance. Sales/adj EBITDA beat Vara consensus by 4%/3%. Organic sales growth of 8.8% was materially ahead of expectations, driven by a strong acceleration across all regions except the Americas. In particular, Geberit highlighted an improved market environment in Europe, where it not expects slight growth this year, with new construction in particular continuing to perform well.

BHP (N / PT GBP 30.9 / 5% downside): BHP reported a strong FY26 result with EBITDA of ~US$33bn above our (and company compiled consensus) estimate at ~US$32.3bn, with most of the beat driven by the copper division which reported EBITDA of ~US$18.2bn, above our US$17.5bn estimate. Iron ore and coal were broadly in-line although Pilbara unit costs beat slightly at ~US$20/t in the June H. Link

SUNRISE: Nos inline and guidance reiterated – will be interesting to see how this reacts as SI had picked up post precloses. Q2 revenues 0.5% light; Underlying EBITDA 4.4% beat awhile Adj EBITDA is inline. Big FCF beat.

TGS (CL BUY / PT NKK180 / 25% Upside): Gemini X strengthens seismic technology leadership; AI contract validates monetisation of data library Link