Massive Attack

Marketing communication 24 July 2026

RaboResearch Weekly wrap Global Economics & Markets Risks of a severe escalation in the US-Iran conflict continue to build, as both sides are increasing knowledge.rabobank.com the stakes.

The Houthi’s have vowed to extend their blockade to the Saudi Arabian port cities of Jeddah and Bas van Geffen, CFA Yanbu. That makes the Red Sea another potential global chokepoint for energy – and for other Senior Macro Strategist goods. President Trump, meanwhile, warned that any ship attacked would be met with the destruction of an Iranian power plant or bridge; and he later added that any damages to vessels or their cargo would be paid for by the Iranian money the US has in its possession.

And the US has reportedly been sending more forces to the Middle East, as the Senate narrowly blocked the advancement of a war powers resolution that would direct the president to seek an end to the Iran war. This gives Trump the option to scale up the attacks on Iran, as the Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump is becoming increasingly sceptical about diplomatic efforts.

The president says he still wants to negotiate, but added that the Iranians are unwilling to make a deal at the moment. So, Trump told Axios that he is seriously considering a “massive attack. Bigger than ever before.”

Growing risks of all-out war have seen Brent futures surge past $100 per barrel again – but that arguably understates what is at risk here.

Nonetheless, the ECB held rates unchanged yesterday – albeit with clear hints at a September rate hike. The ECB’s assessment of the inflation outlook has not changed materially: the inflation shock is large enough to warrant measured tightening, but the shock is not so large or persistent that the ECB needed to respond more forcefully. Therefore, policymakers concluded that they could leave policy unchanged for the moment, whilst they “closely monitor” the intensity and duration of the energy shock.

The Iran war has pushed the global trade war to page 2 of the newspapers, but trade frictions have not lessened. Trump announced a new Section 301 tariff of 10–12.5%. This announcement had largely been expected, but it nonetheless caused new dismay amongst trading partners.

After the Supreme Court ruled against the basis for many of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, the administration quickly implemented a blanket 10% tariff as a stopgap measure. But section 122 of the Trade Act –which was cited as the basis for this 10% tariff– only authorises the president to impose these tariffs for 150 days, unless Congress extends them. That deadline expires today.

The Trump administration has been using the past 150 days to design a structural replacement for the Liberation Day tariffs. The Section 301 investigations into forced labour are a first step, effectively replacing the 10% stopgap. The USTR completed its investigation two months ago, accusing some 60 countries –that make up virtually all of the US’ trade– of failing to effectively enforce import bans on goods made with forced labour.

And more may yet be forthcoming. The USTR also opened a Section 301 investigation into 16 of the US’ largest trading partners –including China, the EU, Mexico, and Japan– relating to structural excess production capacity. That investigation is still pending, but the US essentially seems to argue that a bilateral trade surplus indicates that a country has structural excess capacity. So, we may soon see more nonsense calculations being published – and ridiculed.

1/6 RaboResearch | Massive attack? | :52 Please note the disclaimer at the end of this document.

But the implications are serious. Between these Section 301 investigations and the pending Section 232 investigations into the effects of imports on national security, the White House may be able to closely recreate the original tariffs. And this time, President Trump would probably have a more solid legal basis, making these tariffs more resilient to challenges in court.

This week also offered a glimpse into the threats of the future. One of OpenAI’s agents managed to escape its sandbox –a ringfenced environment– to gain access to the internet. The AI then autonomously…