Mexico Higher Than Expected Unemployment Rate

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 8:32AM EDT

Mexico: Higher Than Expected Unemployment Rate; Lower Participation Rate; Stable Informality (Ramos)

Bottom Line: The unemployment rate reached 2.90% in Jun, above the Bloomberg Alberto Ramos | consensus at 2.80% and the 2.69% print a year ago. Seasonally adjusted, the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC unemployment rate increased 7bp to a still tight 2.80%; +31bp from the Oct-24 record low but with the 3-mma stable 2.69% since April. A broad measure of unemployment (which considers the individuals outside the labor force but available to work if offered a job) is tracking at 9.8%, below the 10.0% print a year ago. The labor force participation declined by 20bp to 58.8% sa (-100bp from a year ago). Employment growth decelerated to -0.1% yoy (0.7% yoy in May), with salaried jobs (+0.2% yoy). Sequentially, the underemployment declined to 6.6% sa (-40bp from May and -80bp from a year ago) and informally remained at 55.1% (+30bp from a year ago). According to the Social Security Ministry Registry (IMSS), formal employment growth accelerated to 2.03% yoy in Jun and real wage growth firmed to 2.9% yoy in Jun (2.5% yoy in May). Hence, the real wage bill of the economy grew 5.0% yoy in Jun, vs 4.1% yoy in May (3.1% yoy in Jun-25). Going forward we expect below-trend real activity growth to gradually impact labor market conditions.

Unemployment Rate: 2.90% vs. consensus at 2.80% and GS at 2.78%.

1. The unemployment rate printed at 2.90% in Jun, above the Bloomberg consensus (2.80%) and the 2.69% print a year ago. On a seasonal and calendar adjusted basis the unemployment rate rose 7bp to a still tight 2.80% and with the 3-mma stable at 2.69% since April. 2. A broad measure of unemployment printed at 9.8%, below 10.0% a year ago and the 13.7% pre-pandemic historical average; this measure takes into consideration the cohort classified as outside the labor force (did not work and did not look for a job) but available to work if offered a job. 3. An estimated 4.7mn individuals of working age were classified as outside the active labor force (did not work and did not look for a job) but were available to work (down from 5.0mn a year ago). This contingent is equivalent to 10.9% of the working age population outside the labor force. 4. Compared with the same month a year ago, employment declined by a minor 84K (-0.1% yoy), and the economically active population rose by 48K (0.1% yoy). Hence, the ranks of the unemployed rose by 132K to 1.8mn. 5. Labor force participation declined by 10bp to 58.8% sa (-100bp from a year ago).

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6. Salaried employment rose 0.2% yoy in Jun (-0.7% yoy in May) and self-employment also 0.2% yoy. Employment in manufacturing declined 0.2% yoy but in construction rose 3.0% yoy. Employment declined by 0.6% yoy in retail and 1.5% in services. 7. Underemployment (includes those reporting the need and availability to work more hours than their current job) declined by 40bp to 6.6% sa (-80bp from a year ago). Labor informality remained at 55.1% (+30bp from a year ago). 8. According to the Social Security Ministry Registry (IMSS), formal employment growth rose 48bp to 2.03% yoy in Jun. Real wage growth firmed to 2.9% yoy in Jun (2.5% yoy in May). The real wage bill of the economy grew 5.0% yoy in Jun, vs 4.1% yoy in May (3.1% yoy in Jun-25).

Broad Unemployment Rate Tracking Slighly Below 10%

Percent Percent 20 Unemployment Rate (s.a.) 20 Underemployment Rate (s.a.) 18 18 Broad Unemployment Rate* (n.s.a.) 16 16

*Broad Unemployment Rate includes individuals outside of labor force but available to work.

Source: INEGI, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research