Mexico Private Sector Credit Growth Firmed in June (Ramos)

Economics Research 31 July 2026 | 12:00PM EDT

Mexico: Private Sector Credit Growth Firmed in June (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Bank credit growth firmed by 150bp to 3.2% yoy in real terms in June, Alberto Ramos | driven in part by the 57bp decline in annual inflation; nominal credit growth rose by Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 100bp to 6.7% yoy. Corporate credit growth is tracking at 1.3% yoy (real) and consumer credit at a firmer 7.6% yoy. Sequentially, credit grew a healthy 0.8% mom sa in real terms, with credit to households’ ex-mortgages up 1.0% mom sa, and corporate credit up 0.8% mom sa in June (adding to the 0.5% mom sa increase in May). Looking ahead, soft growth, weak business confidence, and trade uncertainty regarding access to the US market remain headwinds to credit origination. On the positive side, the expected acceleration of public investment could support the credit cycle.

1. Credit growth to the private sector firmed to 3.2% yoy in real terms in June (vs 1.7% yoy in May and 5.2% yoy a year ago). The acceleration of real credit growth was driven in part by the moderation of inflation from 3.94% yoy in May to 3.37% yoy in Jun. 2. In nominal terms, credit to the private sector rose 6.7% yoy (up from 5.7% yoy in May and 9.8% yoy a year ago), with consumer credit up by 10bp to 11.3% yoy and corporate up by 180bp to a firmer 4.7% yoy. 3. Sequentially, credit to the private sector rose 0.8% mom sa in Jun (0.7% mom sa in May) with consumer credit advancing 1.0% mom sa and corporate credit up 0.8% mom sa. 4. In real terms, consumer lending grew by 7.6% yoy (1.0% mom sa) in June vs. 7.0% yoy (0.7% mom sa) in May. Corporate credit grew 1.3% yoy (0.8% mom sa) vs. -1.0% yoy (0.5% mom sa) in May. Mortgage/housing lending grew just 1.5% yoy (1.0% yoy in May).

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Percent change, year ago; real Percent change, year ago; real 16 Corporate 16 Total 12 Consumer 12

-20 -20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26

Source: Banxico, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Credit to the Private Sector (% yoy real growth rate) % yoy Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26

Source: Banxico, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research