Mexico Weak Jun Retail Sales and Non Financial Services (Ramos)

Economics Research 21 August 2026 | 8:29AM EDT

Mexico: Weak Jun Retail Sales and Non-Financial Services (Ramos)

Bottom Line: Retail sales declined 0.2% mom sa in Jun, below consensus for a minor 0.1% Alberto Ramos | increase and adding to the -0.6% mom sa variation in May. Non-financial services activity Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC declined 0.2% mom sa, adding to the -0.1% mom sa May decline. On a quarterly basis, retail sales declined 0.1% qoq sa during 2Q2026 (services declined 0.2% qoq sa). The retail sales carry for 3Q2026 is tracking at -0.4% qoq sa; -0.2% qoq sa for services. Sequential real wage growth was positive in retail (0.1% mom sa; 5.2% yoy sa) and in services (1.0% mom sa; 0.8% yoy sa), with employment growth soft in both retail (-0.7% mom sa; -0.4% yoy sa) and in services (-0.3% mom sa; -2.7% yoy sa).

Going forward, household consumption of goods and services is likely to continue to face headwinds from lingering domestic and external uncertainty and soft consumer confidence. On the positive side, household spending is likely to benefit from generous minimum wage increases, a still resilient labor market backdrop, pickup in formal employment and remittances, and solid though moderating real wage growth.

Retail Sales: 2.7% yoy (-0.2% mom sa; 2.0% yoy sa) vs. consensus forecast at 3.1% yoy (0.1% mom sa); GS at 0.1% mom sa; prior 1.6% yoy (-0.6% mom sa).

Private Non-Financial Services: -1.9% yoy sa (-0.2% mom sa); prior -2.2% yoy sa (-0.1% mom sa).

1. Retail sales declined 0.2% mom sa in Jun, below the Bloomberg consensus for +0.1% mom sa and adding to the -0.6% mom sa May print (revised from -0.6% mom sa). The May level of retail sales was revised down by 20bp. 2. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 2.7% yoy in Jun, below the 3.1% yoy Bloomberg consensus. The seasonal and calendar-adjusted series show retail sales up 2.0% yoy sa, vs. 2.3% yoy sa in May. 3. On a quarterly basis, retail activity declined 0.1% qoq sa during 2Q26, moderating from 0.6% qoq sa during 1Q26. 4. The statistical carry for 3Q2026 is at -0.4% qoq sa (2.0% for 2026). 5. Employment in the retail sector declined 0.4% yoy sa (-0.7% mom sa) in Jun and average real wages 5.2% yoy sa (0.1% mom sa). 6. Non-Financial Services declined 0.2% mom sa in Jun, adding to the -0.1% mom sa May print. The Apr/May prints were revised down by 0.1/0.2pt to +0.1/-0.2% mom sa. The May level of services activity was revised down by 34bp

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7. On an annual basis, private non-financial services activity recorded a -1.9% yoy sa variation (vs. -2.2% yoy sa in May). 8. On a quarterly basis, services activity declined 0.2% qoq sa during 2Q26, adding to the 1.2% qoq sa decline during 1Q26. 9. The statistical carry for 3Q2026 services activity sequential growth stands at -0.2% qoq sa; with carry for 2026 at -1.7%. 10. Services sector employment declined 0.3% mom sa (-2.7% yoy sa) and real wages rose 1.0% mom sa (+0.8% yoy sa).

Soft Retail Sales and Services Activity

Index; 2018 =100; s.a. Index; 2018=100; s.a. 130 130 Non-Financial Services 125 Retail Sales 125

70 70 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26

Source: INEGI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research