Morning Market Tidbits A stock fueled retirement party

Morning Market Tidbits A stock-fueled retirement party

11 August 2026 Key takeaways Economics • Labor force participation is collapsing among older workers. We think the strength of United States the equity market is partly to blame. • Today’s events: 2Q NY Fed Credit report, Jul NFIB, ADP weekly data, and Jul existing Stephen Juneau US Economist home sales. BofAS Aditya Bhave US Economist What Matters Today: The wealth effect is likely weighing on participation among older workers BofAS Labor force participation rate (55+) vs. S&P 500 performance % US Economics Labor force participation rate: 55+ (%) S&P 500 (% y/y, rhs) BofAS 50% See Team Page for List of Analysts 40 40% 30% 39 20% 10% 38 0% 37 -10% -20% 36 -30% Source: BLS, Haver Analytics BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Who needs income if you have wealth? The labor force participation rate among older (55+) workers never recovered after the pandemic shock. It remained roughly range-bound until the summer of 2024, but has taken another big leg down since then. We think this is related to the 35%+ increase in the S&P 500 over the last two years. The resulting surge in wealth has likely made retirement an easier choice for many. More broadly as well, there appears to be a modest negative relationship between equity gains and older workers’ participation.

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Exhibit 1: We are tracking GDP growth of 1.4% q/q saar in 2Q, down 0.1pp from the advance estimate BofA US GDP tracking estimate (% q/q saar) Net exports CIPI Date Data release GDP Final Sales PCE Res. Inv. Struct Equip IPP Gov. Exports Imports (level) (level) 7/30/26 2Q GDP (A) /3/26 Construction Spending /4/26 Factory Orders, Auto , Trade balance /6/26 Wholesale inventories /7/26 Employment report GDP tracking Contribution to GDP growth (pp) BofA official GDP forecast Source: BofA Global Research. Our GDP tracking estimate reflects the mechanical aggregation of incoming data that directly informs the BEA’s GDP calculations. The process is distinct from our official published GDP forecast. Boldface cells indicate where data have implications for tracking estimates BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 2: Today’s focus will be on ADP, NFIB, and the NY Fed household credit report Aug 11 Data Deck BofA Date Time Indicator Period Estimate Consensus Previous 8/11/26 6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Jul -- 97.4 97.4 8/11/26 8:15 ADP NER Pulse (4-wk moving. Avg. ch.) — -- — — 8/11/26 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 4.05M 4.05M 4.09M 8/11/26 11:00 NY Fed Credit report 2Q 26 -- — — Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

2 Morning Market Tidbits | 11 August 2026