MRB Asset Allocation Bond Warnings Signs September 4 2026

ASSET ALLOCATION Independent Investment Strategy September 4, 2026

Bond Warning Signs z The global economy is solid, but policy uncertainty, rising bond yields and already elevated corporate earnings and valuations, warrant only a modest pro-growth investment posture. Stay overweight cash within a multi-asset portfolio.

z Global bond yields are poised to climb further over the next 6-12 months, with central banks needing to hike by more than investors currently expect to restrain inflation. Continue to underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio, while favoring short duration, corporate and EM bonds, and inflation protection within a fixed-income portfolio.

z Global earnings growth is unsustainably strong, tempering our enthusiasm for equities and underpinning our neutral weight on stocks within a multi-asset portfolio.

z Better value and improving growth momentum justify overweighting select non-U.S. markets, while mildly underweighting the U.S. within a global equity portfolio.

z Benchmark exposure to commodities is appropriate with base/industrial metals the best bet to outperform within the asset class. Underweight the U.S. dollar in a currency portfolio, with most major non-U.S. currencies poised to benefit as global growth momentum broadens and improves.

Rising global bond yields are threatening to Watch Now This Week's Webcast derail the liquidity-driven risk-on climate that has boosted equities, corporate credit and other Warsh’s Volte-Face, p .18 And What To Expect From The Fed pro-growth assets since late-2023. Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole volte-face underscored that This Week's Research a higher policy rate looms to quell broad-based inflation pressures and bolster Fed credibility1. U.S.: Warsh Bends p .18 There are signs of increasing angst about A.I. with To The Bond Market (For Now)

CDS spreads on several major plays continuing to U.S. Capital Spending: rise. Recent renewed military action by the U.S. and p .19 Boon To Growth, With Risks Iran add to near-term upside risks for oil prices, Persistent Undercurrent inflation expectations and bond yields. p .19 Of Political Instability

MRB Asset Class Indicators click here 1 MRB Webinar "Warsh’s Volte-Face, And What To Expect From The Fed", September 2, 2026 and MRB "U.S.: Warsh Bends To The MRB's Investment Recommendations click here Bond Market (For Now)", August 28, 2026

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ASSET ALLOCATION l September 4, 2026

Table 1 MRB Asset Allocation Recommendations1 (6-12 month horizon)

Overall Asset Allocation - N+ Fixed Income Duration Equities Government Bonds Fixed Income Yield Curve5 Cash Inflation Protection Commodities Corporate Investment-Grade Bonds6: High-Yield Regional Equities2 EM USD Debt Australia Sovereign: Local Currency Debt Canada EM Markets DM Government Bonds6 (Currency Hedged) Euro Area Australia Japan Canada Sweden Euro Area Switzerland Japan U.K. New Zealand U.S. Norway Sweden U.S. Equity Sectors3 Switzerland Consumer Discretionary U.K. Communication Services U.S. Consumer Staples Energy Currencies (vs US$) Financials Australia Health Care Canada Industrials Euro Area Information Technology Japan Materials New Zealand Real Estate Norway Utilities Singapore Sweden Emerging Market Equities4 Switzerland Brazil U.K. China Emerging Markets India U.S. (DXY) Indonesia Korea Emerging Market Currencies (vs EM Basket) Mexico Brazil Saudi Arabia China South Africa India Taiwan Indonesia 1 6-12 month horizon Korea 2 Relative to common currency global equity benchmark 3 Relative to common currency U.S. equity benchmark Mexico 4 Relative to common currency emerging markets equity benchmark 5 + = Steepener and - = Flattener South Africa 6 Relative to hedged global fixed income benchmark Taiwan Note: Apart from the Asset Allocation section, recommendations are within asset Turkey classes; + = overweight, N = neutral and – = underweight © 2026

M R B PA RT N E R S I N C. l I n d e p e n d e n t I n ve s t m e n t S t ra t e g y l w w w. m r b p a r t n e rs .c o m l…