MS El Niño Tracker Higher Probability, Stronger Intensity, Higher Risk of a Historic Event

M August 26, 2026 01:21 AM GMT

Global Agribusiness Global Foundation

Julia Rizzo Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Probability, Stronger Intensity,

Higher Risk of a Historic Event Latin America Industry View In-Line

El Niño risks continue to build. In our August Tracker, we examine how forecasts have strengthened, where weather anomalies are beginning to appear, whether commodity markets are starting to price a higher weather risk premium, and how corporate commentary is evolving across sectors. While evidence remains uneven, we are seeing the first indications of market transmission in selected commodities and company disclosures. For a broader roadmap of where risks are concentrated and how investors may position for them, see Global Agribusiness: El Niño Risks Rising into 2026/27: Where the Risk Sits, and How to Play It — a Global Cross- Sector Guide

Exhibit 1: Equatorial Pacific Warming Has Broadened as El Niño Strengthens

Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology, Morgan Stanley Research

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Exhibit 2: NOAA’s +2.5°C RONI Scenario Would Exceed Every El Niño Since 1950

Historical Relative Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (RONI) La Niña El Niño NOAA Estimate

Relative NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (°C) Strong

-3 Aug-50 Aug-52 Aug-54 Aug-56 Aug-58 Aug-60 Aug-62 Aug-64 Aug-66 Aug-68 Aug-70 Aug-72 Aug-74 Aug-76 Aug-78 Aug-80 Aug-82 Aug-84 Aug-86 Aug-88 Aug-90 Aug-92 Aug-94 Aug-96 Aug-98 Aug-00 Aug-02 Aug-04 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 Aug-18 Aug-20 Aug-22 Aug-24 Aug-26

Source: NOAA CPC ENSO strength probabilities and RONI probabilities (issued August 2026); IRI/Columbia ENSO update; Morgan Stanley Research