Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE) 2Q26 In line results, RES sales margin beat

Equity Research 24 July 2026 | 7:26AM BST

Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE): 2Q26: In line results, RES sales margin beat

Results Yulia Bocharnikova | Neste reported 2Q26 results this morning (July 24) with comparable group EBITDA Goldman Sachs International

of €1,203 mn, roughly in line with consensus of €1,229 mn, and net income of Michele Della Vigna, CFA | €765mn, vs consensus of €784 mn. Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch Oil refining comparable EBITDA was reported at €334 mn, 17% below consensus of Anastasia Shalaeva €401 mn on lower refining sales volumes ahead of turnaround, and total refining | margin of $25.8/bbl (cons at $24.4/bbl). Comparable EBITDA in the Renewable Goldman Sachs International

Products division was €859 mn, 8% above consensus of €796mn, driven by Quentin Marbach | higher-than-expected RES sales margin, reported at US$1,223/t (cons at Goldman Sachs International $1,059/t). RES sales volumes came in 4% below expectations at 1,026kt (1,069kt cons). Will Chen | Goldman Sachs International The leverage ratio stood at 29.9% at end 2Q26, vs. a target of below 40%.

We see LSD upside risk to consensus forecasts for Neste, all else equal, on the back of 2Q26 results on stronger-than-expected RES margin in 2Q and upside risks to 2H26 RES margin consensus estimates.

The company provided updated guidance for FY2026 cash-out capex of EUR1.2 bn (€1.0-1.2 bn before, cons €1.1bn). Regarding the outlook for volumes, Neste expects renewables sales volumes to be approximately at the same level as in 2025 (unchanged, FY26 cons at 4.1 mn t, 2025 at 4.1 mn t). Neste provided additional guidance on RES refineries maintenance in 2026: Rotterdam RES plant will have 8 weeks maintenance during Q4 2026, Singapore will start 11 weeks turnaround in December 2026 for one of the production lines. Oil Products’ sales volumes in 2026 are expected to be lower than in 2025 due to the planned maintenance turnaround. As disclosed before, Neste will conduct an approximately nine-week maintenance turnaround at its Porvoo refinery between August and October 2026 with capex of €400mn.

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Goldman Sachs Neste OYJ (NESTE.HE)

Exhibit 1: Neste 2Q26 results summary vs GSe and company-compiled consensus

EUR mn 2Q 2025 act 1Q 2026 act 2Q 2026 est 2Q 2026 act % chg yoy % chg qoq Vara cons Act vs cons

Total revenue 4,511 5,164 5,142 5,987 33% 16% 5,288 13% Comparable EBITDA 341 861 1,079 1,203 253% 40% 1,229 -2% Renewable products nr 98% 796 8% Oil products nr -10% 401 -17% Oil retail % -52% 33 -30% Others (incl.eliminations) 0 7 0 -13 -1 Depreciation - % 4% Other 0 0 0 0 Comparable EBIT nr 52%

Net financial items - Pre-tax income (loss) ,007 nr 61% Tax expense nr nr Tax rate (%) 40% 21% 17% 18% Other adjustment -12 0 0 -59 Comparable adj. net income n.a. 56% 784 -2% Comparable EPS n.a. 56% 1.02 -2%

Total refining margin (US$/bl) % 12% 24.4 6% Total refining volumes 3,021 2,952 2,626 2,526 -16% -14% 2,819 -10% RES sales volumes 1,096 874 1,069 1,026 -6% 17% 1,069 -4% Comparable RES sales margin (US$/tn) ,223 239% 43% 1059 15%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

We are Neutral-rated on Neste with a 12m target price of EUR30. We value Neste on a SOTP basis, and apply a 5.0x 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple to the Oil Products business, in line with the rest of the European refiners in our coverage, using a normalised, mid-cycle refining financials year (2027E) and 6.0x 2027E EV/EBITDA to the Marketing business. We value the company’s RES Products business using a DCF, given the long duration of this business. Key risks include higher/lower refining margins, higher/lower RES products sales margin, positive/negative changes in…