PNC Economics Research Claims 6 August 2026

PNC Economics Research 06 August 2026

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Below 200k For the Third Straight Week Headlines Jay Hawkins  Initial jobless claims were basically unchanged in the week ending August 1 and remain low and steady. PNC Economics

 The four-week moving average of initial claims slipped to below 200k for the first time since October 2022.

 Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1.801 million in the week ending July 25.

 The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week ending July 25.

 PNC expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 72,000 in July when the employment report is released tomorrow.

Details Initial jobless claims continue to run low. First-time That is 22,500 below the level of initial claims in the filings were little changed in the week ending same week in 2025. August 1 and remain low at just 199,000 (Figure 1). This was below PNC’s forecast of an increase to Continuing claims or the number of people who 208,000. That’s the third consecutive week that have already filed a first-time claim and continue to claims came in below 200,000, suggesting layoffs receive jobless benefits, increased by 24,000 to 1.801 are at the very least stabilizing. Initial claims are million in the week ending July 25 (Figure 2). down 27,000 from the same week one year ago. Continuing claims are down 162,000 from the same week a year ago. The four-week moving average of The largest declines in initial claims (not seasonally continuing claims ending July 25 slipped by 5,000 to adjusted) for the week ending August 1 were in North 1.791 million, which is 156,000 below the same week Carolina (-794), Ohio (-730), California (-700), in 2025. Georgia (-682), Illinois (-680) and Florida (-638). The insured unemployment rate - the number of The four-week moving average of initial claims in workers currently claiming unemployment the week ending August 1 fell by 4,500 and is below insurance benefits relative to the entire pool of 200,000 for the first time since mid-October 2022. workers covered by unemployment insurance - was 1.2% for the week ending July 25, unchanged from

PNC Economics Research 06 August 2026

the previous week and down from 1.3% in the same week last year. The insured unemployment rate has remained at 1.2% for 13 weeks in a row.

The June data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey offers some insight into the July jobs report, which is being released tomorrow. Job openings were little changed, the hiring rate ticked up slightly but remains low and the layoff rate was unchanged. Therefore, PNC expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by a modest 72,000 in July after rising by 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain a low 4.2% for the second month in a row.

Figure 1: Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits (SA) 270k 260k 250k 240k 230k 220k 210k 200k 190k 180k '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 Initial Claims 4WK MA 2019 Average 2015-2019 Average Sources: Department of Labor, PNC

Figure 2: Continuing claims for unemployment insurance benefits (SA) 2,100k 2,000k 1,900k 1,800k 1,700k 1,600k 1,500k 1,400k 1,300k 1,200k '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 Continuing Claims 4WK MA 2019 Average 2015-2019 Average Sources: Department of Labor, PNC