Private equity

17 September 2026, 21:00 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Private equity CIO View: Private equity Karim Cherif, Head Alternative Investments, UBS Switzerland AG Richard Huang, CAIA, Private Market Strategist, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch Antoinette Zuidweg, Alternative Investments Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG

• We remain constructive on private equity, supported by attractive Figure 1: 1H26 PE fundraising already valuations, resilient fundamentals, and a gradual recovery in more than 60% of FY25 total dealmaking. Global private equity fundraising, in USD billions

• At the same time, selectivity remains essential. We favor managers with strong value-creation capabilities, particularly those with experience in complex transactions such as carveouts and divestitures, and those able to capitalize on opportunities created by valuation resets.

• We also recommend broadening allocations beyond the technology sector and the US market, while maintaining a positive view on secondaries for greater returns visibility and defensive exposure.

Note: As of 30 June 2026. Source: PitchBook, UBS September 2026. Private equity in the current environment

• The macroeconomic backdrop remains constructive despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and volatile energy markets. Growth is Figure 2: Gradual recovery in moderating but broadly aligned with potential, while corporate fundamentals remain resilient. Inflation, however, continues to run dealmaking Global private equity deal value, in USD billions, and above central bank targets. With the Federal Reserve raising the bar on deal count (trailing 12 months) inflation progress, CIO now expects two 25-basis-point rate hikes by year-end, with a modest impact on growth and the potential for easing to resume in 2027.

• We believe the private equity (PE) market has reached an inflection point. The recovery that began in 2025 continues to gain traction following several years of constrained exits, subdued deployment, and muted returns. Global PE fell 1% in 1Q26, versus a 3% decline in global equities, but the subsequent public-market rebound should support private valuations. Fundraising trends have also improved. Global PE fundraising reached USD 262 billion in the first half of 2026, equivalent to more than 60% of the full-year 2025 total. Asia Pacific has been the Note: Includes growth and buyout transactions. As strongest region, with 1H26 fundraising 30% above the full-year 2025 of 30 June 2026. Source: PitchBook, UBS September level, while the US and Europe are also tracking ahead of last year’s pace. 2026.

• Conflict in the Middle East, interest-rate volatility, and concerns about AI disruption have weighed on short-term momentum, delaying larger transactions and subjecting software deals to greater scrutiny. Trailing 12-month PE deal value nevertheless stayed broadly flat for a second consecutive quarter. Overall deal value remains elevated, and deal count growth improved from 6% in 1Q26 to 9% in 2Q26. These trends point to a gradual recovery. At the same time, Aon’s recently announced acquisition of USI Insurance Services is an encouraging development,

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on page 5.

underscoring that transaction appetite remains intact and that concerns Figure 3: Constructive view on PE, about AI disruption in professional services are gradually receding. supported by attractive valuations • There are also early signs that deal activity is broadening out. Europe’s Public equity multiples versus global buyout purchase price multiples share of trailing 12-month global PE deal value increased from 31% in 2Q25 to 35% in 2Q26, suggesting that momentum is not confined to the US. Activity has also extended beyond mega-cap transactions into parts of the middle market, while sector leadership appears more balanced. Technology, and software in particular, is no longer dominating activity to the same extent, with greater interest in energy and hard-asset-linked sectors such as materials, chemicals, and industrials. We view this broadening as a healthy and necessary condition…