Pulp & Paper Some Hardwood Momentum Building Into 4Q

Equity Research 8 September 2026 | 8:49AM BRT

Pulp & Paper: Some Hardwood Momentum Building Into 4Q

China hardwood negotiations are yet to start for September orders in China and RISI Marcio Farid | reports different messages in terms of expectations for different players in the Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. supply chain (our channel checks suggest some orders have already been done at Henrique Marques higher levels). | Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Sellers and traders remain confident and a broad push to recover margin should help Emerson Vieira support at least $10/t price hike. Additionally, stronger RMB (at 40 months high) | should also increase buyers’ pricing power in support of price implementation. We Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. would also note stronger seasonality until October should be a positive.

We think the limiting factor will be paper prices, as profitability is weak and pricing remains under pressure. Additionally, order books have picked up materially in the last months and those volumes should arrive in China in late 4Q when seasonality slows and when new capacity comes online.

Either way, risk for pulp prices are skewed to the upside in the short term. Suzano is our Buy in the sector.

China FOEX hardwood imported pulp prices declined by $1/t to $563/t, while domestic resale prices were up by RMB 0-4/t to the equivalent of $554-577/t. On the softwood side, imported FOEX prices remained flat at $639/t, while domestic resale prices were up by RMB 37-40/t to the equivalent of $603-644/t.

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Exhibit 1: Hardwood domestic resale prices vs. Hardwood Exhibit 2: Softwood domestic resale prices vs. Softwood PIX China price (in USD) PIX China price (in USD)

Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 Jul-26 Sep-26 Hardwood domestic resale price Hardwood PIX China price Softwood domestic resale price Softwood PIX China price

Source: RISI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: RISI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

China n China pulp inventories up 3% m/m and 12% y/y in August. Pulp inventories rose by 67kt m/m, reaching 2.30mt, still well above the 5yr historical avg. of 1.9mt (+20%).

Exhibit 3: China pulp inventories at the main ports (kt)

Mar-21 Aug-21 Jan-22 Jun-22 Nov-22 Apr-23 Sep-23 Feb-24 Jul-24 Dec-24 May-25 Oct-25 Mar-26 Aug-26

Baoding Tianjin Changshu Gaolan Qingdao 5yr Total avg.

n China paper output remained flattish m/m, but increased 3% y/y during August; utilization rate kept at 58%. On a monthly basis, paper production saw a slight increase in tissue and UWF being offset by a marginal decline in CWF and Ivoryboard, consequently leading to a total output of 3.30mt in August. YTD production remains strong at 11% (+2.77mt).