Put up or bond up

Global Rates Weekly Put up or bond up

31 July 2026 The View: Steep learning curve This week’s dovish FOMC meeting raised credibility issues and challenged our core bear Rates Research flattening view in US. Ultimately, we expect this price action and strong data to Global reinforce the Fed’s need to hike rates, In the meantime, we watch the BoJ and other CB- speak, as risks of a global long-end steepening dynamic are there. Table of Contents

─ S. Salim Core views, trades and forecasts 2 The View 3 Rates: All hat, no cattle Rates – US 4 US: Warsh challenges pay 2Y & flattening views; solid US data & NFP should help them. Rates – EU 6 Bond Warsh revolt to support UST maintaining “several quarters” coupon guidance. Rates – UK 8 Rates – AU 10 EU: OATs cheapened this summer on supply, Le Pen’s presidential candidacy, and the Rates – JP 11 collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. We remain short vs EU for the next few weeks. Front end – US 13 UK: BoE added to global steepening by showing no rush to act. We remain in 2s10s Gilt Volatility – AU 15 steepener with global steepening spillovers and fiscal risks in mind. Special Topic – Models update 16 AU: A miss on CPI this week suggests a rate hike is highly unlikely at the RBA’s meeting Special Topic – August refunding preview 17 on 11 August. We like carry trades and stay long 10y ACGBs. Technicals 19 Rates Alpha trade recommendations 21 JP: Long-end JGBs have outperformed swaps; we favor long 30-year JGBs on ASW, Global rates forecasts 25 reflecting robust cash bond demand and scope for long-end swap richness to correct. Appendix: Common acronyms 26 ─ M. Cabana, M. Swiber, B. Braizinha, R. Axel, K. Craig, E. Xiao, S. Salim, N. Thomas, Research Analysts 31 A. Stengeryte, M. Capleton, O. Levingston, I. Hartstein, & T. Yamashita

Front end: Put it on my bill Global Rates Research MLI (UK) US: We see roughly $700bn of FY '27 bill demand from SOMA and MMFs, supporting Ralf Preusser, CFA stable coupon sizes near term. Treasury may need to grow coupons in FY ‘27. Rates Strategist MLI (UK) Volatility & Special Topics Mark Cabana, CFA AU vol: Our baseline view supports: (1) short left vs right side vol, (2) long 6m2y AU vs Rates Strategist US receivers, and (3) costless 6m2y receiver ladders. BofAS Models update: Macro data suggests only slight upward momentum in reflation theme. Sphia Salim Rates Strategist USTs underperformance reflects higher geopolitical risks. MLI (UK) Aug refunding: We expect stable coupon guidance at this meeting and push our call for See Team Page for List of Analysts coupon growth back to Aug '27. We see risks to UST moving 7y to quarterly issue cycle.

Technicals: August favors lower yields, led by Aussie 10Y August seasonals favor lower yields, led by Aussie 10Y. The lower-yield bias broadened in USPC Y2 and persisted across US yields in 2018, with foreign yields mixed.

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 28 to 30. Analyst Certification on page 27.

Core views, trades and forecasts Exhibit 1: Global rates trade quilt Views / trades in bold when changed / entered this week US EU UK CA JP AU Short: pay Jan FOMC Duration Long bias on x-market basis Bullish front-end bias Long CA 2y vs short 2y US Bullish long-end bias Long 10y ACGB Sell 2Y UST Steeper 2y-10y in Gilts Curve Flatter 2s10s 2s10s flattener in options Steeper 2s10s vs US Neutral Steepening bias vs US 15y-20y flattener Short Jul26 SOFR/FF Jun27 IMM 2y Euribor-€str CORRA cheaper vs deposit Bases Sonia cheaper vs. Bank TONA below IOER Pay 2y 6s3s Long Dec26 SOFR/FF widener rate 1y2y inflation flattener / 1y1y vs Long…