Repsol (REP)

Equity Research 23 July 2026 | 6:50PM CEST

Repsol (REP.MC) Higher for longer refining, high-quality upstream growth and sector-leading 11% 2026 SH returns; Buy

REP.MC 12m Price Target: €30.00 Price: €25.48 Upside: 17.7% BUY Michele Della Vigna, CFA Repsol reported strong 2Q26 results, with adjusted net income of | Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch €1.84bn, 12% ahead of consensus, driven by a significant beat in Yulia Bocharnikova Industrial. The company generated c.€3bn of operating cash flow | Goldman Sachs International and c.€2.1bn of free cash flow after organic capex, further strengthening the balance sheet and supporting higher shareholder Anastasia Shalaeva | Goldman Sachs International distributions. We remain Buy-rated, with our thesis driven by the following catalysts: Key Data _____________________________________ (1) We continue to see 2H26/2027 earnings upside on refining Market cap: €28.3bn / $32.3bn Enterprise value: €33.6bn / $38.4bn strength. The 12% adjusted net income beat was driven by 3m ADTV: €78.5mn / $90.7mn Spain stronger-than-expected Industrial earnings. Repsol reported a Europe Energy and Clean Tech $24/bbl realized refining margin in 2Q26, comprising a $14/bbl M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No benchmark margin and a $10/bbl premium, of which management GS Forecast __________________________________ attributed c.$2.2/bbl to biofuels, c.$2-3/bbl to crude sourcing 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

optimization and the remainder to product yield optimization. EBIT (€ mn) New EBIT (€ mn) Old 4,605.0 3,732.0 8,050.2 6,869.3 6,308.4 6,115.7 5,424.4 6,047.0 Looking into 3Q26, management stated its refining margin EPS (€) New EPS (€) Old indicator is currently averaging ~$34/bbl, with a premium of P/E (X) 4.5 4.7 5.7 6.2 ~$9/bbl. The company expects refining fundamentals to remain Dividend yield (%) 8.0 4.5 5.0 5.3 FCF yield (%) supportive through 2H26 and into 2027, supported by low CROCI (%)

inventories, Russian refinery disruptions, deferred maintenance and Net debt/EBITDA (X) 0.8 0.3 (0.0) (0.3)

resilient product demand. Notably, management expressed 3/26 6/26E 9/26E 12/26E

confidence that the FY26 realized refining margin would remain EPS (€)

above $20-21/bbl even in the event of an immediate normalization GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, exceeding the exceptional 2022-23 years. We therefore raise our realized refining margin Financial Returns

assumptions to $21/$14 per bbl in FY26/FY27 from Multiple

$15.5/$11.5/bbl previously and continue to see upside risk to Integrated estimates at current market conditions. Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th (2) The highest-quality upstream growth profile in European Energy based on our Top Projects analysis. Repsol continues to REP.MC relative to Europe Coverage REP.MC relative to Europe Energy and Clean Tech improve portfolio quality through high-return, low-cost projects. Pikka in Alaska reached first oil in May and is expected to reach an Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. 80 kbpd gross plateau in 3Q26 according to the company, while

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Repsol (REP.MC) Balance Sheet (€ mn) _______________________________________ BUY Rating since Apr 30, 2026 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 7,979.0 7,979.0 7,979.0 7,979.0 Accounts receivable 6,557.0 8,348.9 7,503.8 7,196.7 Inventory 5,475.0 6,971.2 6,265.5 6,009.1 Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets 1,362.0 1,734.2 1,558.7 1,494.9 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets 21,373.0 25,033.4 23,306.9 22,679.7 EV/DACF…