Rexel S.A. (RXL.PA) Barometer and thoughts into 3Q26

Equity Research 14 September 2026 | 1:31PM BST

Rexel S.A. (RXL.PA) Barometer and thoughts into 3Q26

RXL.PA 12m Price Target: €44.00 Price: €36.51 Upside: 20.5% BUY Daniela Costa We update our Rexel numbers pre 3Q26 results to reflect our | Goldman Sachs International updated company-specific barometer as well as latest copper Ines Lefranc and PPI moves and FX changes. We slightly increase our sales | Goldman Sachs International estimates for Europe given strength in France supported by electrification demand as well as some signs of green shoots in German industrial activity. We also increase adj EBITA margins to reflect continued strong pricing, supported by copper, leading to 3%/3% increases in our FY26/27 adj. EBITA estimates. This puts us Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: €10.7bn / $12.4bn 5%/9% ahead of Visible Alpha Consensus Data and above FY26 Enterprise value: €14.7bn / $17.0bn 3m ADTV: €23.9mn / $27.5mn guidance. We detail our bottom-up growth forecasts and margin France assumptions in Exhibit 5 and Exhibit 6. In the near term, we see Europe Multi-Industry M&A Rank: 2 potential for an upgrade in guidance for both organic sales Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes

growth (to 5-7% from 5%) and margins (to 6.3-6.5% from ‘at GS Forecast __________________________________ 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E least’ 6.2%). Revenue (€ mn) New 19,414.5 20,872.7 22,797.3 24,457.9 Revenue (€ mn) Old 19,414.5 20,824.8 22,736.1 24,392.8 We remain constructive on Rexel over the medium term, driven EBIT (€ mn) 1,157.6 1,359.1 1,558.9 1,757.7 EPS (€) New by: (1) our expectation of organic growth rate acceleration vs EPS (€) Old long-run levels (5% CAGR 25-30E vs 1% average L20Y), helped by P/E (X) Dividend yield (%) 4.5 3.3 3.6 4.2 favourable end market exposures (see our end-market implied CROCI (%)

growth analysis in Exhibit 5), with potential tailwinds from N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1

datacenters (both in the US and Europe) and from renewed interest 12/25 6/26 12/26E 6/27E

in energy efficiency and electrification solutions; (2) potential for EPS (€)

margins to accelerate to over 7% driven by better growth and strong GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth pricing (as detailed in our bottom-up build in Exhibit 6) as well as continued AI-related efficiency improvements (see Exhibit 11); and Financial Returns

(3) an attractive valuation with above-sector average dividend yield Multiple

and FCF yield (Exhibit 16). Integrated

We remain Buy rated with an increased 12-month price target of Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th €44 (up from €42) reflecting our higher estimates. This remains based on our EV/IC to ROIC/WACC sector-relative methodology RXL.PA relative to Europe Coverage RXL.PA relative to Europe Multi-Industry using 6m/6m of 2027/28 estimates (€42 vs €41 previously; 85% weight) and on an M&A component (€50 vs €48 previously; 15% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. weight) using an unchanged M&A multiple of c.12x (based on

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Rexel S.A. (RXL.PA)

Rexel S.A. (RXL.PA) Balance Sheet (€ mn) _______________________________________ BUY Rating since Aug 29, 2019 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 1, Accounts receivable 2,682.0 2,922.2 3,191.6 3,424.1 Inventory 2,364.1 2,609.1 2,735.7 2,935.0 Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets 7,011.3 7,433.2 7,726.0 8,266.6 EV/sales (X) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 Net PP&E EV/EBITDAR (X) 8.6 9.1 8.1 7.3 Net intangibles 1,659.3 1,551.5 1,441.2 1,328.4 EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 7.0…