Curvature SELL

RMC

Aug 19, 20264 pages

From the report报告摘录Treasury Buyback Expansion: $4B program (Sept 9–Nov 4) in 10–30Y bonds, no net supply change, yield curve flattening impact (Operation Twist analog) - GC/Fed Funds Spread Negative: GC rate below Fed Funds rate signals…

Inside the report报告内文 Verbatim from the original PDF — first pages原版 PDF 开篇原文 · 逐字摘录

Repo Market Commentary Month- Mid- Refunding Quarter- August 19, 2026 10:00 AM 1 Week End Month Date End Open High Low Close Average 26-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 15-Nov 30-Sep General Collateral Fed Funds/EFFR 3.630 SOFR (T-1) 3.650 Agency MBS 3.661

Specials Issue 2 Year 4.125 7/ Year 4.25 8/ Year 4.375 7/ Year 4.375 7/ Year 4.625 8/ Year 5.0 5/ Year 5.125 8/ Treasury Buybacks The Treasury announced an increase in their buyback program from $2 billion to $4 billion from September 9 to November 4. The Treasury buyback program is different from a Fed buying program like QE or RMPs because securities are recycled back into the market. When the Treasury buys securities, they must issue new securities to pay for them. That means the Treasury is only rearranging the maturities of the debt, in this case, buying securities in the 10 Year to 30 Year bond sector. There's no net increase or net decrease in the supply of Treasury debt. Just fewer securities in the long-end. Kind of like the old "Operation Twist," which the Fed used to try to flatten the yield curve. Scott E.D. Skyrm

2 Year: Overnight Rates 3 Year: Overnight Rates 3.75 3.75

3.35 3.35 7/31/26 8/6/26 8/12/26 8/18/26 8/24/26 8/28/26 8/17/26 8/21/26 8/27/26 9/2/26 9/9/26 9/15/26

5 Year: Overnight Rates 10 Year: Overnight Rates 3.70 3.75

3.35 3.35 8/17/26 8/28/26 9/11/26 9/24/26 10/7/26 10/21/26 11/3/26 7/31/26 8/6/26 8/12/26 8/18/26 8/24/26 8/28/26

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