Russian monitor

THE RUSSIAN M O NITOR THE WEEK OF PUBLISHED BY HALCYON PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LIMITED 3 — 9 AUGUST 2026

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER by Philomath

MARKETS THIS WEEK QUOTE OF THE WEEK

Rouble / US$ 82.17 -3.3% « Tell us Europeans, what specifically can we do Equities in Rb terms Moex index +2.5% to help you kill more Russians? » Equities in US$ terms -0.9% Question Zelensky received at a press conference RTS index from German FAZ journalist Michael Martens “ л

Long-distance attacks are intensifying on both sides and increasingly target dual-use infrastructure such as fuel depots and warehouses. As the attacks get closer to cities, the number of civilian casualties increases. Last week alone, 49 civilians were killed in Russia and 37 in Ukraine, with many more wounded.

The US asked Ukraine not to attack ports and tankers that manage oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, where Chevron and Exxon are among the largest shareholders.

Russian parliamentary elections will take place this September. While all ten parties that were allowed to participate play by the rules, one small one, with a 1% rating, decided to stick it to the man and put up “PEACE AND FREEDOM” as its motto (this is a bold move, as in today’s Russia you can get a jail term for calling for peace). The next day the party’s popularity (at least, in the absence of reliable polls, on social media) went through the roof. We are waiting to see what the government response will be.

JP Morgan finally terminated its DR programme for Rosneft shares by selling the underlying at a 70% discount to the March price. Foreign investors that held Rosneft DRs will now get the proceeds; those who owned the stock directly continue to hold it in frozen S-accounts.

The last weekly inflation print was negative; prices are a bit down, mostly due to gasoline panic being over and the seasonal factors. Still, another reason to keep cutting interest rates.

The intensity of long-range attacks is increasing on both sides, and the number of civilian casualties is increasing with it. The prime targets these days are fuel depots and refineries, bridges, ships in the Black Sea, and warehouses.

The attacks on Russian Wildberries’ facilities fizzled out by the end of the week, with ‘only one’ warehouse being bombed. Russia responded by bombing out about a dozen warehouses around Kiev, Ukraine’s capital. All belonged to different companies, so Russia is not targeting a single specific company.

Wildberries is now offering its sellers an insurance policy at 2-5% of the value of goods. Sellers are happily taking it, hoping to pass it over to the end buyer.

Ukraine will get 70 ATACMS missiles from Turkey’s arsenal. This is probably the last major delivery of said ammunition, as the U.S. military has depleted "virtually all" of its global stockpile of ATACMS following heavy use during the conflict with Iran.

Witkoff and Kushner may visit Moscow this week with another round of negotiations. Fingers crossed.

The US requested Ukraine should stop attacking tankers and other infrastructure belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). CPC is bringing Kazakh oil through pipelines to the Black Sea and then to tankers. The reason for the request can be that Kazakhstan is not a party of the conflict and should not suffer in it; another plausible explanation is the fact that Chevron and Exxon are large shareholders in the project. In any case, it seems Ukraine agreed not to pester the consortium anymore.