Silver

18 August 2026, 06:33 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Tracking gold closely CIO View: Silver Dominic Schnider, CFA, CAIA, Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG

Silver (USD/oz) • Silver prices have rallied alongside gold in recent days. The latest move Forecasts Spot higher in silver has coincided with the gold-silver ratio stabilizing after 18 Aug 26 65.2 recently declining. Dec 26 70.0 • We think there is a limit to the upside in the gold-to-silver ratio in the 75.0 Mar 27 absence of a material economic downturn. We therefore see limited scope for the ratio to move into the high 70s. Jun 27 75.0 Sep 27 80.0 • As we are rolling our forecasts by one quarter, we introduce our 3Q27 forecast for the first time. We set this number at USD 80/oz; this view Source: Bloomberg Finance, UBS; Note: Forecasts refer to end of period. signals our expectations for greater tightness ahead in 2027. Silver prices have strengthened recently Daily data

Silver prices tend to track gold closely. This is well established: The correlation between the two metals, based on weekly returns, stands at 0.76 and 0.79 over the past five and ten years, respectively. Over the past three months, the correlation based on daily returns has risen to 0.9, a multi-year high. We attribute this elevated correlation to top-down factors affecting both metals simultaneously. Silver has also attracted greater investor attention following its rally last year, while silver-specific factors have played a less prominent role lately. We expect this relatively high- correlation environment to persist for now.

Periods of greater divergence between gold and silver have generally Source: Bloomberg, UBS, as of August 2026 resulted from unexpected pullbacks in silver, while gold continued to rise. The opposite scenario—gold weakening while silver soars—has occurred much less frequently. Price developments following the US tariff announcement in 2025 provide a good example. Gold moved higher quickly, while silver initially struggled to keep pace. Silver subsequently Gold-silver correlation is at a multi-year caught up, but only with a lag, fully normalizing into 4Q25. high Daily data Looking ahead to 2027, we believe the balance of risks for silver prices is skewed toward higher rather than lower levels from here. As structural drivers—including persistent fiscal deficits, central-bank purchases, and longer-term risks to the US dollar—continue to support gold, we think silver should benefit through its close relationship and higher beta to gold. As a result, we see limited scope for further gains in the gold-silver ratio and expect investors to favor silver when the ratio moves above 70x. Conversely, investor caution is likely to increase if the ratio falls back toward 50x.

Why do we like to hold exposure to precious metals like silver? As inflationary pressures ease in 2027, the narrative of higher short-term interest rates should also fade, owing to base effects among other factors. Source: Bloomberg, UBS, as of August 2026 If this backdrop is accompanied by somewhat softer economic activity, markets could begin to price a return to rate cuts. Such a rate shift would likely undermine the US dollar and support real assets such as silver, in our view.

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures that begin on page 3.

Gold-silver ratio has moved modestly Given our expectations for the outlined macroeconomic and policy higher backdrop next year, we are setting our 3Q27 silver forecast at USD 80 per Weekly data ounce, above our previous forecast levels, while leaving all other forecasts unchanged. We also expect the silver market, which is likely to be broadly balanced this year, to move into a larger deficit in 2027 as investment demand strengthens again. From an investment perspective, we continue to favor selling downside protection to generate yield. We would also look to buy silver on dips, particularly if prices were to revisit this year’s lows.

Two developments could challenge our silver outlook. First, if monetary policy tightens rather than eases and several rate hikes are delivered over the coming months, silver…