STAYING RISK ON

STAYING RISK ON Daniel von Ahlen / Robert Taylor / Davide Oneglia / Sadeem Al Gaaod

MULTI ASSET We remain modestly overweight ASSET ALLOCATION We modestly reduce high beta global equities but trim our exposure slightly as risk risk-asset exposure, with cuts focused on EM equities sentiment is rolling over, fuel prices remain elevated, a and industrial metals. We remain overweight risk assets. growing proportion of central banks is hiking, and Our 12m portfolio beta is maintained at 1.13. earnings expectations leave less room for upside surprises. Resilient global macro data and the DM Equities structural AI tailwind keep us from cutting risk more EM Equities aggressively. Global HY Corp.

We remain overweight Tech as agentic AI adoption Global IG Corp.

will likely accelerate. Overweight Taiwan equity EM Sov. Credit

remains our strongest expression of this view. EM Local Ccy Debt DM Govvies Alternatives Cash

(15%) (10%) (5%) - 5% 10% U/W → O/W Percentage Points, Diff Dotted Lines = Previous Allocation

DM Equities asset allocation EM Equities asset allocation

Japan Mexico Spain Brazil Italy India France Germany Taiwan

(4%) (2%) - 2% 4% (4%) (2%) - 2% 4% U/W → O/W Percentage Points, Diff U/W → O/W Percentage Points, Diff

12m rolling model portfolio beta vs benchmark Alternatives asset allocation

(2%) (1%) - 1% 2% U/W → O/W Percentage Points, Diff

ASSET ALLOCATION 3 to 6-month view. Previous ratings in brackets. Monetary policy outlook changes in bold. Rationale on next page.

Equities Govt Bonds FX vs. USD Monetary policy Developed Markets US +1 0 Next hike in Q4 UK +1 +1 0 No hikes this year Japan +1 0 0 Hawkish, next hike in January Australia - - 0 More tightening to come Canada - - -1 (0) BoC likely to stay on hold this year Switzerland - - -1 (0) Return to NIRP unlikely 1–2 winter hikes; 3% terminal by Euro Area 0 end-2027 Germany +1 0 France +1 0 Italy +1 0 Spain +1 0 Emerging Markets China +1 0 +1 RMB management, easing bias Rate hike cycle likely to start by India 0 +1 -1 yearend 25bp cut in Sept. to 13.75%, scope Brazil 0 +2 +1 for further easing in Q4 Rates on hold at 6.50% through Mexico +1 +1 +1 yearend. South Korea 0 - 0 Two hikes in H2 2026 Taiwan +1 - 0 Neutral - FX management

Alternatives Credit Energy Commodities 0 Global HY Corp. +1 Industrial Metals +1 Global IG Corp. 0 Precious Metals +1 EM Sov. 0 Managed Futures +1

Key to recommendations +2 = strongly positive +1 = positive 0 = neutral -1 = negative -2 = strongly negative

Recommendations based on expectations of normalized local-currency total returns. FX returns include carry. Model portfolio available here.

Asset Allocation | September 2026 2