Target Corp. (TGT) Channel check takeaways, HundredX update, and traffic trends

Equity Research 27 July 2026 | 4:59AM EDT

Target Corp. (TGT) Channel check takeaways, HundredX update, and traffic trends

TGT 12m Price Target: $127.00 Price: $136.78 Downside: 7.2% NEUTRAL Kate McShane, CFA Given the amount of change and investment Target spoke to at its | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC March Investor Day, we continue to monitor the store for any Emily Ghosh changes to the floor, brands, and merchandising. Target is | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC continuing its elevated cadence of limited time offers, and as noted on our recent call with IR, Target is at or ahead of 1Q in terms of the Mark Jordan, CFA | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC number of partnerships this quarter. That said, the company considers these offers to be marketing assets versus sales drivers. We also analyzed HundredX data around Target, which showed that Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $62.0bn NPS and NPI trends remain at depressed levels, with both metrics Enterprise value: $72.8bn 3m ADTV: $641.1mn down since their previous peaks in late 2025. United States Americas Retail Specialty Hardlines, Supermarkets and We remain Neutral on Target given a still very competitive Discount Stores M&A Rank: 3 environment and harder compares, which may make it hard for the GS Forecast __________________________________ company to sustain its sales momentum. Moreover, in FY27, Target 1/26 1/27E 1/28E 1/29E

will likely be lapping the FY26 top-line benefit from tax refunds and Revenue ($ mn) EBITDA ($ mn) 104,780.0 108,936.4 7,908.0 8,540.5 111,910.5 8,782.2 114,954.5 9,167.4 new product ideas while keeping certain higher costs, such as EBIT ($ mn) 4,774.0 5,223.2 5,373.6 5,666.1 EPS ($) incremental labor costs and increased spend on merchandising and P/E (X) technology, likely putting its longer-term earnings algorithm at risk. EV/EBITDA (X) 7.1 8.5 8.1 7.6 FCF yield (%) 6.2 4.5 6.2 6.7 We think the next catalyst will likely be the company reporting 2Q Dividend yield (%) 4.5 3.4 3.6 3.8

results, noting we expect trends to potentially decelerate as Net debt/EBITDA (X) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0

compares get harder and we move farther away from tax refunds. 4/26 7/26E 10/26E 1/27E

We currently estimate 2Q SSS of +2.0%, slightly above consensus EPS ($)

(FactSet) at +1.9%, and 2Q adj. EPS of $2.11, below consensus at GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth $2.26. For the year, we estimate FY26 SSS of +2.8%, in line with consensus, and adj. EPS of $8.31, below consensus at $8.40. Financial Returns

We visited a Target store in Dallas, TX on 7/5/26. Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

n Traffic: Traffic was light to moderate throughout the store. TGT relative to Americas Coverage

n What was new in the store this week: In home furnishings, an TGT relative to Americas Retail Specialty Hardlines, Supermarkets and Discou

aisle near the rear entrance showcased the Hollister Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. collaboration, including various bedding options. In women’s

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Target Corp. (TGT)

Target Corp. (TGT) Income Statement ($ mn) ___________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Apr 16, 2025 1/26 1/27E 1/28E 1/29E Total revenue 104,780.0 108,936.4 111,910.5 114,954.5 Cost of goods sold (75,511.0) (77,894.9) (79,979.1) (82,113.7) SG&A (21,878.0) (23,026.1) (23,688.8) (24,227.7) Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ R&D -- -- -- -- 1/26 1/27E 1/28E 1/29E Other operating inc./(exp.) -- -- -- -- P/E (X) EBITDA 7,391.0 8,015.4 8,242.6 8,613.2 EV/EBITDA (X) 7.1 8.5 8.1 7.6 Depreciation & amortization (2,617.0) (2,792.3) (2,869.0) (2,947.1) EV/sales (X)…