The Brink's Co. (BCO) Updating estimates to reflect Malaysia business deconsolidation

Equity Research 27 July 2026 | 12:41PM PDT

The Brink’s Co. (BCO) Updating estimates to reflect Malaysia business deconsolidation

BCO 12m Price Target: $141.00 Price: $122.00 Upside: 15.6% BUY George K. Tong, CFA We are updating our estimates for Brink’s to reflect the company’s | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC announced change in accounting treatment related to its Malaysia Alex Lakritz business. Following a change in BCO’s involvement in the operation, | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC the company expects to account for its Malaysia investment under a deconsolidated basis. We lower our annual revenue estimates by Sami Nasir, CFA | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ~$100mn, EBITDA estimates by $10-15mn and EPS estimates by $0.12-0.16, noting that our 2026 estimates only reflect a half-year impact beginning in 3Q. Importantly, the accounting change does Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: $5.1bn not impact BCO’s 2026 organic revenue growth or EBITDA margin Enterprise value: $6.7bn 3m ADTV: $51.2mn expansion framework. We continue to believe BCO’s continued United States strong execution of its DRS/AMS strategy will support solid Americas Information and Business Services M&A Rank: 3 mid-single-digit overall organic revenue growth accompanied by 40 GS Forecast __________________________________ bps of annual EBITDA margin expansion, with an increasing mix of 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

high-value solutions improving the company’s terminal value and Revenue ($ mn) New Revenue ($ mn) Old 5,261.2 5,261.2 5,632.3 5,682.3 5,878.8 5,981.6 6,148.6 6,256.7 sustainability of growth. EBITDA ($ mn) 977.1 1,068.7 1,153.4 1,235.7 EBIT ($ mn) EPS ($) New EPS ($) Old GS Estimate Changes P/E (X) Dividend yield (%) 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 Lowering Revenue and EPS estimates. We lower our Net debt/EBITDA (X) /2027/2028 revenue estimates from 3/26 6/26E 9/26E 12/26E $5,682mn/$5,982mn/$6,257mn to EPS ($) $5,632mn/$5,879mn/$6,149mn, representing an average 1.4% GS Factor Profile ______________________________ decrease to reflect the Malaysia deconsolidation. We maintain our Growth

2026 EBITDA margin forecast of 19.0% and raise our 2027/2028 Financial Returns EBITDA margin forecasts from 19.5%/20.0% to 19.6%/20.1%. Our 2026/2027/2028 EPS estimates go down from Multiple

$9.36/$11.16/$12.63 to $9.24/$11.02/$12.46. Integrated

Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

Valuation and Risks BCO relative to Americas Coverage BCO relative to Americas Information and Business Services

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. We trim our 12-month price target from $143 to $141 based on See disclosures for details. 7.0x (unchanged) our NTM + 1YR EBITDA estimate of $1,173mn

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs The Brink’s Co. (BCO)

The Brink’s Co. (BCO) Balance Sheet ($ mn) _______________________________________ BUY Rating since Mar 3, 2021 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 2,266.9 2,440.6 2,859.3 3,339.9 Accounts receivable Inventory -- -- -- -- Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets 3,329.0 3,525.3 3,911.9 4,354.7 P/E (X) Net PP&E 1,519.2 1,484.5 1,442.1 1,399.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 6.3 6.3 5.4 4.6 Net intangibles 1,900.5 1,835.3 1,779.7 1,724.1 EV/sales (X) 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 Total investments FCF yield (%) Other long-term assets EV/DACF (X) 8.5 8.8 7.4 6.3 Total assets 7,339.2 7,459.8 7,748.4 8,093.2 CROCI (%) ROE (%) Accounts payable Net debt/EBITDA (X) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 Short-term debt Net debt/equity (%) Current lease liabilities -- -- -- -- Interest cover (X) 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.9 Other current liabilities 1,474.4 1,478.5 1,449.6 1,412.6 Inventory days NM NM NM NM Total…