Tracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion Sept 14

Equity Research 14 September 2026 | 5:11PM EDT

TRACKING U.S. SUPPLY CHAIN CONGESTION

GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale: Sept 14th; Index Lower W/W, Bottleneck Scale Unchanged at ‘2’

Our weekly bottleneck scale Jordan Alliger | GS Supply Chain Congestion Scale remained at ‘2’ this week, though the Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Week of 09/14/2026 absolute level of our congestion index Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA was down meaningfully on a | sequential basis (-10% w/w; Exhibit Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

2 2). For this week’s scale and index, the Paul Stoddard | number of container ships waiting to Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC dock and unload goods along the West Aakarsh Goyal 1 Fully Open Fully Bottlenecked 10 Coast remained unchanged at 1, while | backlogs along the East Coast Goldman Sachs India SPL Scale is based solely off weekly metrics to give more decreased to 2 from 3 (Exhibit 6). West granularity on high frequency data indications; see Appendix for scale that combines weekly and monthly Coast rail intermodal traffic growth metrics accelerated significantly versus last Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research week (+21% YoY vs +7% YoY last week; Exhibit 7), while rail service metrics were mixed. Ocean container shipping rates (China to US West Coast) were down -1% WoW but still up +250% YoY (Exhibit 10).

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Goldman Sachs Tracking U.S. Supply Chain Congestion

Exhibit 1: Our weekly composite index decreased in the Exhibit 2: Our average weekly bottleneck score in most recent week (-10% w/w); the bottleneck scale September is at 2; this result is down significantly from the remained at ‘2’; overall bottleneck levels remain well Dec21/Jan22 peak of congestion and close to in line with below peak congestion levels when scale was at ‘10’ and the pre-Covid baseline now imply levels in line with pre-Covid fluidity GS Weekly Congestion Scale, Scored by Month* GS Weekly Bottleneck Index, Feb 2020 - Sept 2026

Feb 3 - Feb 9 Apr 20 - Apr 26 July 6 - July 12 Sep 21- Sep 27 Dec 7 - Dec 13 Feb 22 - Feb 28 3 May 10 - May 16 Jul 26 - Aug 1 Oct 11 - Oct 17 Dec 27 - Jan 2 Mar 14 - Mar 20 May 30 - June 5 Aug 15 - Aug 21 2 Oct 31 - Nov 6 Jan 16 - Jan 22 1 Apr 3 - Apr 9 June 19 - June 25 Sept 4 - Sept 10 Nov 20 - Nov 26 Feb 5 - Feb 11 Apr 22 - Apr 28 July 8 - July 14 Sept 23 - Sept 29 Dec 9 - Dec 15 Feb 24 - Mar 2 2025 0

Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 May-22 Sep-22 Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25 Sep-25 Jan-26 May-26 Sep-26 May 12 - May 18 Jul 28 - Aug 3 Oct 13 - Oct 19 Dec 29 - Jan 4 Mar 16 - Mar 22 (2026) Jun 1 - Jun 7 (2026) Aug 17 - Aug 23 (2026)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research *Numbers reflect the average weekly score seen in each respective month

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

As a reminder (and to help reiterate why and how we construct the index), please refer to the Appendix following Exhibit 17. Additionally, for further clarity on tracked congestion metrics, please refer to the glossary following Exhibit 19.

Transport Subsectors to Watch as Congestion Remains Muted The key question remains as to what impact tariffs and geopolitical conflicts will have on demand and timing of freight flows, as well as ability to normalize around global trade. Please see our recent tariff impact tracker for additional commentary. Should supply chain pressures broadly continue to mitigate, then it is conceivable we could see the index remaining more consistently in ‘1’ territory in 2026.