Trading Catalysts Time for a Fed hike; and BofA Real Estate conference

Trading Catalysts Time for a Fed hike; and BofA Real Estate conference

Time to hike (or risks to the long end could rise) 14 September 2026

All eyes will be on the Sep FOMC meeting on Wed, where our economists expect the Fed Equity and Quant Strategy to hike by 25bp. After a stronger than expected CPI last week, markets are pricing over United States 20bp of hike for this week’s meeting, and over 80bp of Fed hikes over the next 12 Paula Andrea Soto, CFA >> months. Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, together with current market pricing, LatAm Equity Strategist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) have raised the cost of disappointing expectations significantly. Warsh can also point to the renewed twist flattening of the Treasury curve as evidence that tighter policy is Thomas (T.J.) Thornton reinforcing inflation-fighting credibility, providing further justification for a hike. If the Head of Research Marketing BofAS Fed were to refrain from hiking after the latest data, it could risk a significant selloff at the long end, potentially larger than the move following the July FOMC meeting. Economics Stephen Juneau Equity strategists continue to favor Value US Economist BofAS Our equity strategists continue to favor Value, which has outperformed during Fed Equity & Quant Strategy hiking cycles, offers inflation-protected income, benefits from broadening profits Savita Subramanian Equity & Quant Strategist growth, is neglected and may have newfound appeal with formerly high multiple growth BofAS stocks shifting from Growth to Value post Russell rebalance. Jill Carey Hall, CFA Equity & Quant Strategist REITs: strong funda., light positioning into BofA conference BofAS

BofA Real Estate conference happens Tue-Thu this week. BofA analyst Jeffrey Spector Fundamental Equity Jeffrey Spector highlights strong fundamentals and light positioning continue to provide a good setup Research Analyst BofAS for the group, even though higher rates for longer remain a risk. He remains ahead of the Street in both 2026E and 2027E. New construction is slowing across most property ETF Research Jared Woodard types, supporting landlord pricing power and improving the outlook into 2027. The team Investment & ETF Strategist BofAS observe the strongest compounding capacity for healthcare and retail REITs, and highlight AHR and WELL among their top picks. To express the view via an ETF, see Derivatives Strategy Nitin Saksena Exhibit 2 and views in the ETF Research section on page 2. Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS

Derivs: How big a risk are rates to the AI boom? Arjun Goyal Equity-Linked Analyst As US equities confront long-term yields hitting multi-year highs ahead of the Sep BofAS FOMC meeting and against a backdrop of fiscal & inflation concerns, our derivs Nicholas Dunne strategists highlight that macro risks have historically faced a high bar to disrupt tech Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS euphoria (e.g., Nasdaq soared in the late 90s amidst 30y yields rising 200bps and the Benjamin Bowler Fed hiking 100bps). In their view, bond stress spilling over into equities would likely need Equity-Linked Analyst BofAS rates vol re-pricing meaningfully higher, making the FOMC meeting a near-term test to see if a tightening path can be achieved without causing panic. See the latest GEVI See Team Page for List of Analysts

We highlight instruments that might be relevant for the themes discussed in this report on Exhibit 1: Key near-term catalysts SPX implied move page 2. Imp. Date move Potential catalysts Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are 9/14 Mon 0.52% not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial 9/15 Tue 0.45% resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies. 9/16 Wed 0.84% >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst 9/17 Thu 0.66% FOMC under the FINRA rules. 9/18 Fri 0.64% Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg.…