Traton (8TRA)

Equity Research 11 August 2026 | 1:07PM BST

Traton (8TRA.DE) Post 2Q26 update; remain Neutral

8TRA.DE 12m Price Target: €36.90 Price: €38.72 Downside: 4.7% NEUTRAL Daniela Costa | Goldman Sachs International

Meihan Yang | Goldman Sachs International

We update our Traton estimates post its 2Q26 results (here). Ines Lefranc | Reflecting the orders beat at Scania and International, we increase Goldman Sachs International

our 2026E orders/deliveries by 4%/2%. However, we lower our 2026E/27E group adj. EBIT by c.5%/6%, noting that Traton’s beat on Key Data _____________________________________ Market cap: €19.4bn / $22.4bn adj. EBIT was driven by the 100% recognition of additional Enterprise value: €20.8bn / $24.1bn tariff-related receivables in 2Q26 (previously it only booked 50% of 3m ADTV: €5.8mn / $6.6mn Germany the minimum expected refunds) and retroactively applying them to Europe Multi-Industry M&A Rank: 3 4Q25 and 1Q26. Excluding this one-off, adj. EBIT was below our Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes expectation, particularly at Scania and MAN, where we accordingly GS Forecast __________________________________ cut our 2026 estimates by 7%/2%. For Scania, we note that the 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Revenue (€ mn) New 44,051.5 47,818.2 54,317.3 56,423.1 China plant is still underutilized, and should remain so this year Revenue (€ mn) Old 44,051.5 47,179.7 54,426.7 56,627.7

(normal utilization would allow 20,000 units per year but Traton EBIT (€ mn) EPS (€) New 2,773.1 3.09 3,543.5 5.13 4,494.2 5.88 5,158.1 6.93 expects 10,000 units for FY26). Traton also anticipates cost inflation EPS (€) Old P/E (X) 9.7 7.6 6.6 5.6 to be higher in 2H26 than 1H26. Tariff refunds were highlighted as Dividend yield (%) 3.1 4.2 4.9 6.3 non cash-flow relevant in 2Q, which, along with changes in working CROCI (%) 2.7 3.8 6.4 6.7 N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) (0.2) (0.7) (0.9) (1.3) capital and maintained R&D spending, explains the weaker-than-expected cash flow at 2Q26 and the absence of a FCF 6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E EPS (€) guidance upgrade. As such, we decrease our 2026/27 FCF estimates GS Factor Profile ______________________________ by 23%/4%. Overall, we are now 4%/6% above Visible Alpha Growth Consensus Data for 2026/27 group adj. EBIT, but below consensus for FCF. Financial Returns

Multiple Whilst Traton screens in line with the sector average for 2025-29E OSG (CAGR), and above-average for 2025-29E EPS Integrated

(CAGR), we note that it has bottom-quartile ROIC and FCF yield Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

on our forecasts. As such, we remain Neutral-rated. Our 8TRA.DE relative to Europe Coverage 12-month price target decreases to €36.9 from €38.4 as our lower 8TRA.DE relative to Europe Multi-Industry

estimates are offset by the roll-forward of our valuation Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. methodology to 6m27/6m28E (from 9m27/3m28E). Our price See disclosures for details. target remains 100% based on our sector-relative EV/IC to

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Goldman Sachs Traton (8TRA.DE)

Traton (8TRA.DE) Balance Sheet (€ mn) _______________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Dec 8, 2021 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 2,805.0 3,180.1 3,562.3 4,782.5 Accounts receivable 12,448.4 12,448.4 12,448.4 12,448.4 Inventory 7,016.4 8,011.8 8,658.2 8,853.5 Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets 23,182.8 24,553.3 25,582.0 26,997.4 EV/sales (X) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Net PP&E 10,111.0 10,546.7 10,868.1 11,248.8 EV/EBITDAR (X) 2.8 4.5 3.0 2.2 Net intangibles 13,631.0 14,236.7 14,867.1 15,520.2 EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) 2.8…