UK Motor Pricing Tracker UK Motor Pricing decelerating with ONS data showing price declines in August

Equity Research 16 September 2026 | 7:44AM BST

UK Motor Pricing Tracker: UK Motor: Pricing decelerating with ONS data showing price declines in August

Vash Gosalia, CFA | Goldman Sachs International

Andrew Baker, CFA | Goldman Sachs International The ONS data for August suggests that motor insurance prices increased 4.3% YoY Ankitha Giridhar but decreased 1.3% MoM, vs July when prices increased 2.5% MoM. Defaqto | (Pearson Ham) data shows that prices increased 1.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM in August Goldman Sachs India SPL for the cheapest five providers. So far, pricing has increased a further 0.1% MoM in Alice Palumbo | September. We note that, according to Defaqto data, prices have increased 4.9% Goldman Sachs International YTD (through September). Lastly, ABI data shows that pricing in 2Q’26 was up 1% QoQ.

Commentary from companies suggests that pricing has already troughed and is now starting to increase, with further increases expected going forward. Larger companies in the sector remain focused on margins and expect to increase prices, which should bode well for the market in general. Today’s data, showing decelerating trends, will be in focus and may be viewed mildly negatively, in our view.

Within our UK Motor tracker, claims inflation is up 2.2% YoY based on our claims inflation index, driven by wage inflation of +3.6%. Used car prices are up 2.1% YoY and spare parts prices are down 0.8% YoY. On a MoM basis, our claims inflation index is up 0.2%. ABI data for 2Q’26 suggests that the average claim payout increased 4% in 2Q’26.

n On pricing: Our blended pricing index of ONS and Defaqto data shows a slight decrease of -0.6% MoM but an increase of 3% YoY for August vs 1.5% MoM and 4.5% YoY in July. n On claims: o Average used car prices increased 2.1% YoY and 0.1% MoM in August vs. +1.9% YoY and -0.5% MoM in July. o The vehicle spare parts & accessories CPI component decreased -0.8% YoY and -0.2% MoM in August vs. -0.5% YoY and decreased c.-0.6% MoM in July. o Wage index increased 0.4% MoM and 3.6% YoY in August, vs. +0.4% MoM

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Goldman Sachs UK Motor Pricing Tracker

n Admiral (1H’26): Admiral notes that it continues to focus on margins and has increased prices by high-single digits, while the market has only raised prices at low-single digits. Management believes that the market needs to increase prices further to remain profitable. n AXA (2Q’26): AXA saw price changes of +3.4% in UK & Ireland personal lines in 1H’26 vs -0.9% price change in 1Q’26, implying strong price increases in 2Q’26. n Aviva (2Q’26): Aviva notes that rating was up 6% in Motor vs c.4% for the market. Management notes that Aviva continues to be disciplined. Claims inflation is in mid-single digits and management notes that rates are starting to harden. n Sabre (2Q’26): Company notes that it continued to be a relatively soft market in H1 2026, while claims inflation is expected to be 6%-7%. Sabre notes that whilst there is early evidence of some growth in market pricing in 2026 it believes meaningfully more market-wide increases are required. Management notes that the market may need to raise prices by 10% to 15% over the next two years to remain profitable. Further, the company notes that global conflicts currently have a limited impact on supply chains and costs. n Sampo (2Q’26): Sampo notes that the market is stabilising and that pricing in 2Q was better than 1Q. That said, they do not believe that the market has turned and expect further price increases. Currently, it has been putting through price increases for inflationary trends which is being accepted by the market and given the price-sensitivity of the UK market, implies that…