Union Pacific Corp

Equity Research 23 July 2026 | 4:34PM EDT

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) 2Q26 EPS Beat, FY26 EPS Guide Raised to HSD from MSD; Pending Transcontinental Rail Merger Remains in Focus

UNP 12m Price Target: $317.00 Price: $292.56 Upside: 8.4% NEUTRAL Jordan Alliger The Bottom Line: UNP’s 2Q26 adjusted EPS came in at $3.41 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC versus $3.25 forecasts for GSe/consensus (adjusted results Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA exclude $0.05 of merger costs). Total revenue of $6.9B was +2% | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC above our/consensus $6.7B estimate, while adjusted EBIT of ~$2.80B was above GSe by about ~3% (above consensus by ~2%); Paul Stoddard | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC net/net, adjusted OR of 59.2% was 20 bps ahead of GSe (59.4%) and in line with consensus (59.2%). Key Data _____________________________________ We continue to believe management’s targeted acquisition of Market cap: $173.8bn Enterprise value: $199.8bn NSC is likely to dominate the conversation versus fundamental 3m ADTV: $800.3mn United States improvement in the near-to-medium term (See UNP and NSC Americas Transportation Announce Agreement on Transcontinental Rail Merger, our initial M&A Rank: 3

Rail M&A Note, the follow-on note UNP Files Merger Application GS Forecast __________________________________ 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E with STB for Transcontinental Rail Merger with NSC; Upgraded Revenue ($ mn) New 24,510.9 26,859.9 28,307.8 29,615.3

Synergies, and more recently UNP Re-Files Merger Application with Revenue ($ mn) Old 24,510.9 26,127.7 27,318.3 28,600.8 EBITDA ($ mn) 12,527.9 13,589.8 14,717.6 15,592.1 STB for Transcontinental Rail Merger with NSC; High Level EBIT ($ mn) 9,972.9 10,942.3 11,930.7 12,676.4

Perspectives and Run-Through). The next key deadline for UNP is EPS ($) New EPS ($) Old resubmitting additional data to the STB (expected July 27th). P/E (X) Dividend yield (%) 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.9 UNP management has previously noted the targeted close of the Net debt/EBITDA (X) 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.4 deal is in 1H27, specifically 2Q27 (though this was not particularly 6/26 9/26E 12/26E 3/27E discussed during the 2Q26 call). EPS ($)

UNP separately announced that it reached an agreement with CN GS Factor Profile ______________________________ Growth to expand customer opportunities in connection with the merger; this establishes a framework for CN to secure competitive Financial Returns

access, Midwest expansion, and terminal ownership interests in Multiple

connection with the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Integrated merger. Under this agreement, which is contingent on regulatory approval, CN will gain certain trackage rights and terminal stakes in Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th

exchange for not opposing the merger and collaborating through UNP relative to Americas Coverage

the Surface Transportation Board process; this is likely part of the UNP relative to Americas Transportation

rationale for the relatively strong share price move today (UNP +4% Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details. vs S&P 500 -1%).

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Goldman Sachs Union Pacific Corp. (UNP)

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) Balance Sheet ($ mn) _______________________________________ NEUTRAL Rating since Jun 2, 2025 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Cash & cash equivalents 1,266.0 3,867.4 5,956.7 7,836.6 Accounts receivable 2,036.0 2,054.5 2,140.5 2,235.7 Inventory Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________ Other current assets /25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Total current assets 4,555.0 7,316.3 9,549.9 11,589.6 P/E (X) Net PP&E 59,645.0 60,528.6 61,156.4 61,710.8 EV/EBITDA (X) Net intangibles -- -- -- -- EV/sales (X) 6.8 7.4 6.9 6.4 Total…