US Daily August CPI Preview

Economics Research 8 September 2026 | 7:45AM CDT

n We expect a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), Jessica Rindels | corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). We Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC expect a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher Ronnie Walker energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a similar 0.22% increase in core PCE | in August. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report. First, we expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.2% decline in the auto insurance category. Second, we forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.22% increase in the OER category and a 0.23% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trends. Third, we expect a 4.0% increase in airfares, reflecting the signal from alternative price data. n Looking beyond August, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% for the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected.

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We expect a 0.23% increase in August core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.40% (vs. +2.4% consensus). We expect a 0.39% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.4% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.25%) and energy (+2.3%) prices, reflecting a rebound in retail gasoline prices. This corresponds to a year-over-year rate of +3.40% (vs. +3.4% consensus and +3.36% in July).

Exhibit 1 provides a component-level summary of our forecast.

Exhibit 1: We Expect a 0.23% Increase in Core CPI in August Core CPI July, August, MoM SA, Weight MoM SA GS Forecast Core 100% 0.22% 0.23% Apparel 3% 0.1% 0.1% New cars 5% 0.1% 0.1% Used cars 3% 0.4% 0.5% Motor vehicle parts 0% 0.6% 0.0% Medical care commodities 2% -0.6% -0.1% Tobacco 1% 0.5% 0.3% Rent of primary residence 10% 0.26% 0.23% Lodging away from home 2% -2.8% 0.3% Medical care services 9% 0.6% -0.1% Public transportation 2% 1.7% 2.7% Transportation services ex-public 8% 0.3% 0.3% Pets 1% 0.3% 0.1% Recreation ex-pets 6% 0.2% 0.3% Education 3% 0.5% 0.3% Communication 1% 0.6% 0.2% Household furnishings and ops. 5% 0.1% 0.1% Personal care 3% 0.0% 0.1% Alcoholic beverages 1% 0.2% 0.2% Owners' equivalent rent 33% 0.26% 0.22% Residual (implicit) 3% 0.2%

Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

We highlight three key component-level trends that we expect to see in this week’s report:

1. Autos. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, based on the signal from used car auction prices; a 0.1% increase in new car prices, reflecting an increase in dealer incentives on new vehicle sales but positive residual seasonality; and a 0.2% decline in auto insurance prices, reflecting a decrease in premiums indicated by our online dataset.