US Daily July CPI Preview

Economics Research 10 August 2026 | 11:04AM CDT

n We expect a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), Jessica Rindels | corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.47% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC expect a 0.05% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.1% consensus), reflecting lower Ronnie Walker energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.26% increase in core PCE | in July, reflecting a large increase in its portfolio management component. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report. First, we expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.5% decline in the auto insurance category. Second, we forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.16% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trends. Third, we expect mixed travel services categories (airfares: +2.0%; hotels: -1.0%), reflecting signals from alternative price data. n Looking beyond July, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories, shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, and the reversal of upward pressure on airfares from higher jet fuel prices, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected.

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We expect a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.47% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.05% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.1% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.2%) but lower energy (-2.0%) prices, reflecting a decline in retail gasoline prices. This corresponds to a year-over-year rate of +3.35% (vs. +3.4% consensus and +3.53% in June).

Exhibit 1 provides a component-level summary of our forecast.

Exhibit 1: We Expect a 0.19% Increase in Core CPI in July Core CPI June, July, MoM SA, Weight MoM SA GS Forecast Core 100% -0.02% 0.19% Apparel 3% -0.6% 0.1% New cars 5% 0.0% 0.1% Used cars 3% -0.2% 0.5% Motor vehicle parts 0% 0.2% 0.2% Medical care commodities 2% -0.2% -0.1% Tobacco 1% -0.7% 0.4% Rent of primary residence 10% 0.15% 0.16% Lodging away from home 2% -2.3% -1.0% Medical care services 9% -0.1% 0.2% Public transportation 2% 0.9% 1.3% Transportation services ex-public 8% -0.3% -0.2% Pets 1% 0.4% 0.3% Recreation ex-pets 6% 0.5% 0.3% Education 3% 0.1% 0.3% Communication 1% -1.5% 0.2% Household furnishings and ops. 5% 0.2% 0.2% Personal care 3% 0.3% 0.2% Alcoholic beverages 1% 0.0% 0.2% Owners' equivalent rent 33% 0.24% 0.23% Residual (implicit) 2% 0.2%

Source: Department of Labor, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

We highlight three key component-level trends that we expect to see in this week’s report:

1. Autos. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, based on the signal from used car auction prices; a 0.1% increase in new car prices, reflecting roughly unchanged dealer incentives on new vehicle sales; and a 0.5% decline in auto insurance prices, reflecting a decrease in premiums indicated by our online dataset.