US EQUITIES COLOR PRESSER PRESSURE

S&P -152bps closing @ 7,316 w/ a MOC of $1.9bn to SELL. NDX -206bps @ 27,192, R2K - 166bps 2,904, and Dow -219bps @ 51,594. 17.845bn shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg of 19.331bn shares. VIX +1247bps @ 20.48, WTI Crude +681bps @ $84.71, US 10YR +0.075bps @ 4.6813%, gold +59bps @ 4,053, dxy -46bps @ 100.95 and Bitcoin -47bps @ $63,537

Trading activity muted ahead of the Fed and Mag7 prints post close (volumes -20% vs 20dma). All eyes remained on the massive steepener in rates post FOMC midly hawkish hold given risk of credibility / limited guidance during the presser. Thematically, momentum continued to struggle (-7%) despite cleaner positioning. The three-day cumulative gross flows from Friday through Tuesday marked the largest three-day de-grossing on our records since Nov ’22 and the largest three-day de-grossing for single names since March 2025. Yesterday’s de-grossing was primarily driven by short covering in macro products, though all sectors saw de-grossing as well led by Industrials. Our floor was a 5 on a 1-10 scale (inbound 7/10) in terms of overall activity levels. From Bartlett: Notable uptick in calls from the LO community recently who've expressed interested in adding to Tech / AI universe. Ongoing extreme volatility seems to be the curbing factor for most...and, indeed, we've note very minimal actual defense/buying on our desk over the last several sessions.

DERIVS: Following the Fed's hold, S&P vol was crushed … was up +60bps before dropping to unch and closing the day +35bps. The desk continues to see capitulatory flow and price action, with NDX now down six sessions in a row (longest streak since Nov '16). With Korea/AI/Semis/Momo all witnessing record drawdowns, we like long delta short vol expressions, specifically in SMH knock out calls, to provide exposure across tech. Flowswise, we saw the monetization + restructuring of short dated hedges. Focus remains on earnings this week, with AAPL and AMZN reporting tomorrow. The implied move for the rest of the week is 1.37%. (TY Shayna Peart)

POST BELL: MSFT +4% .. nice beat on quarter… conf call @ 530pm ET with guidance on call

META -5% .. conf call @ 430pm ET .. Revs +27% y/y cc in qtr (HE of 2Q guide) .. raises FY Capex .. guides 3Q Revs $61-64B vs cons $63.14B – notes ~1pt FX headwind on guide

LRCX +5% .. Guides revs ~14% above the street ..... 12c beat .. Revs $6.72bn vs con s$6.68bn .. Guides F1Q Revs $7.7-8.5bn vs cons $7.1bn

QCOM -5% .. F4Q EPS guided below, though revs inline/slightly better

FTNT +11% .. accelerated billings to +33% y/y

SBUX +10% .. Expectations were high and the clearly delivered. 3Q comps cleared a very elevated bar. Importantly, the out quarter comp guide of +6.5% in North America is also strong and is good to see, given some concerns next quarter could have been slower. Flow through is solid. Nothing to poke holes in, except valuation.

CMG +7% .. 2nd solid restaurant print of the night. Rewind a couple weeks ago and investors liked CMG. The view was a beat was expected and 2H could look better as compares ease. The virus concerns in the industry reduced near-term enthusiasm for the story. However, the 2Q beat was a little better than expected and they still raised the FY comp guide.

SFM +4% .. on very light volume. Call dependent, we think this is good enough. There were a lot of fears around the 3Q comp guide and it ended up coming right in-line with sell-side and above some of the fears of solidly -LSD. Instead, mid-point is +0.5%. Likely good enough given recent data fears and easing compares into 2H.

HOOD -3% .. Core EPS ~$0.50-0.52 vs street at $0.43 .. took expense guide/range down .. NII in-line – transaction fees drove the beat but some sellside dragging their feet relative to mid-qtr updates that buyside has in numbers .. Looking for any July/fwd looking commentary

HLI (-).. Missed by $100mn on revenue driven by corp finance (22%) while restructuring missed by 9% .. Positioning was short & our convos expected weakness but not to this magnitude.

MC (-/=) .. slight rev beat (6%) but non comp miss (6%) limits drop to bottom line (~1% beat) .. noncomp misses becoming recurring …