US Week Ahead August 17 August 23

Economics Research 15 August 2026 | 9:23PM EDT

US Week Ahead: August 17 - August 23

The key economic data releases this week are the import prices report—because of its Jan Hatzius | potential implications for core PCE—on Tuesday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

index on Thursday. There are currently no scheduled speaking engagements with Fed David Mericle | officials this week. The minutes to the FOMC’s July meeting will be released on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Alec Phillips Monday, August 17 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing, August (consensus 10.5, last 15.6) Ronnie Walker | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Tuesday, August 18 Elsie Peng 08:30 AM Import prices, July (consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%) | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

The import prices report contains the remaining source data relevant to estimating Pierfrancesco Mei | July core PCE: the import price index for air passenger fares. Based on the details of Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC last week’s CPI and PPI reports, we currently estimate that the core PCE price index Jessica Rindels rose 0.20% in July, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.24%. | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 08:30 AM Housing starts, July (GS -8.0%, consensus -5.9%, last +19.0%) Abhay Duggirala | Housing permits, July (consensus +0.1%, last -2.6%) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

We forecast that housing starts declined by 8.0%, reflecting payback from last month’s outsized increase in multi-family housing starts.

09:15 AM Industrial production, July (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%)

Manufacturing production, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last flat)

Capacity utilization, July (GS 76.2%, consensus 76.3%, last 76.1%)

We estimate industrial production increased by 0.5% in July, largely reflecting strong auto and electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged up to 76.2%.

10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (GS flat, consensus +0.5%, last -5.4%)

Wednesday, August 19 There are no major data releases scheduled.

02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, July 28-29 meeting

The run-up to the July FOMC meeting was unusually dramatic, with markets pricing a roughly 35% chance of a hike ahead of the meeting. But the meeting ended with no change to the funds rate, no substantiative changes to the post-meeting statement,

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and no policy guidance or explanation of the FOMC’s interpretation of the inflation situation. Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a 25bp rate hike. We had expected that most FOMC voters would not want to hike at the July meeting because the June inflation data showed substantial improvement relative to prior months. Many voters have said that they want to see sustained improvement in the inflation data and are open to raising rates eventually if necessary. While Warsh downplayed the role of the June CPI report during his press conference, we suspect that was the thought process for most of the other eight voters who preferred to leave the funds rate unchanged. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time. Since the meeting, the labor market and inflation data have looked softer.

Thursday, August 20 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 15 (GS 210k, consensus 212k, last 209k)

Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 8 (consensus 1,788k, last 1,777k)

08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, August (GS 30.0, consensus 25.0, last 41.4)

Friday, August 21 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August preliminary (consensus 53.9, last 53.9)

09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, August preliminary (consensus 53.9, last 54.6)

Latest GS Tracking Tools n We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our past-quarter GDP tracking for Q2 estimate by 0.2pp to +1.3% on the back of soft retail sales. n Our July Current Activity Indicator stands at +3.6% (vs. +2.7% in June). n Our US MAP index…