US Week Ahead July 27 August 2

Economics Research 26 July 2026 | 6:02PM EDT

US Week Ahead: July 27 - August 2

The key economic data releases this week are the advance release of Q2 GDP and core PCE Jan Hatzius | inflation on Thursday. The July FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at David Mericle | 2:30 PM. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Alec Phillips Monday, July 27 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, June preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.8%, Ronnie Walker | last -4.5%) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Durable goods orders ex-transportation, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus Elsie Peng +0.8%, last +1.4%) | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Core capital goods orders, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.8%, last Pierfrancesco Mei | +1.4%) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Core capital goods shipments, June preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, Jessica Rindels | last +0.1%) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 1% in the preliminary June report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in June—and a 0.6% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.

Tuesday, July 28 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, June (GS -$95.0bn, consensus -$100.3bn, last -$105.9bn)

08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, June preliminary (last +0.1%)

09:00 AM FHFA house price index, May (last -0.1%)

09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, May (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat)

10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, July (GS 92.0, consensus 92.4, last 91.2)

Wednesday, July 29 02:00 PM FOMC statement, July 28-29 meeting

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its July meeting, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. The post-meeting statement might acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by renewed geopolitical conflict, and there will likely be at least one dissent in favor of a hike. Market pricing implies that investors see the outcome of the July meeting as unusually uncertain, likely because the FOMC has been split recently, Chairman Warsh’s own position remains unclear, and some of the re-escalation with Iran occurred during the blackout period. But most voters appear unlikely to push for a hike this week after the softer June inflation data, the Fed has historically avoided delivering surprise rate hikes, and we suspect that voters might be especially reluctant to do so at a meeting without a Summary of Economic Projections.

Thursday, July 30 08:30 AM GDP, Q2 advance (GS +2.6%, consensus +2.1%, last +2.1%)

Personal consumption, Q2 advance (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +0.5%)

Core PCE inflation, Q2 advance (GS +3.46%, consensus +3.5%, last +4.4%)

We estimate that GDP rose 2.6% annualized in the advance reading for Q2, following a +2.1% annualized increase in Q1. Our forecast reflects a rebound in consumption growth (+2.3%, quarter-over-quarter annualized, vs. +0.5% in Q1) and another quarter of strong business fixed investment growth (+8.8% vs. +10.6% in Q1) driven by strong equipment investment growth (+17.1%). We expect net exports to contribute -1.3pp to Q2 GDP growth. We estimate that domestic final sales rose +2.6% in Q2. We estimate that the core PCE price index increased 3.46% annualized (or 3.35% year-over-year) in Q2.

08:30 AM Personal income, June (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%)

Personal spending, June (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%)

Core PCE price index, June (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%)

Core PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.32%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.4%)

PCE price index, June (GS -0.07%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.4%)

PCE price index (YoY), June (GS +3.70%, consensus +3.7%, last +4.1%)

We estimate that personal…