USA Philly Fed Manufacturing Highest Since 2021

Economics Research 20 August 2026 | 9:34AM EDT

USA: Philly Fed Manufacturing Highest Since 2021; Initial Claims Slightly Below Expectations

BOTTOM LINE: The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index increased in August, well Jan Hatzius | above expectations and the highest level since April 2021, though the composition Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

of the report was somewhat softer. The 6-months ahead business conditions index David Mericle | increased to the highest level since 1983. Initial claims declined by 6k to 206k, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC slightly below expectations. Alec Phillips | US MAP: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ronnie Walker Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index +16 (4, +4) | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Initial claims 0 (2, 0) Elsie Peng | Continuing claims 0 (1, 0) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Pierfrancesco Mei KEY NUMBERS: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index +47.4 for August vs. GS +30.0, median Jessica Rindels forecast +24.8, prior +41.4 | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Initial claims 206k for the week ended August 15 vs. GS 210k, median forecast 210k, Abhay Duggirala prior revised 212k | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Continuing claims 1,799k for the week ended August 8 vs. median forecast 1,788k, prior revised 1,781k

1. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index increased 6.0pt to +47.4, well above expectations and the highest level since April 2021. The composition of the report was softer, as the employment component increased to the highest level since April 2022 (+17.9pt to +27.9), while the new orders (-6.9pt to +30.1) and shipments (-6.0pt to +27.7) components both declined. Both the prices paid (-13.0pt to +40.9) and the prices received (-9.7pt to +17.7) measures declined. The 6 months-ahead business conditions index jumped 39.2pt to +73.6, the largest one-month increase in the component in the survey’s history and the highest level since 1983.

2. Initial jobless claims declined by 6k to 206k in the week ended August 15, slightly below expectations. The four-week moving average of claims increased by 4k to 204k. Claims rose by 2k in Texas (SA by GS). Nationwide continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—increased by 18k to 1,799k in the week ended August 8, slightly above expectations.

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Diffusion index Diffusion index Diffusion index Philly Fed 6-Months Ahead Diffusion index 80 Philly Fed Mfg. (left) 80 100 Business Conditions Index 100 Philly Fed, ISM-Equivalent* (right) 60 80 Latest

- * The ISM equivalent index is an equal-weighted average of the new orders, shipments, employment, delivery time, and inventories components. It is centered at 50.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Federal Reserve

Thousands Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims Thousands Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Department of Labor