USA Retail Sales Well Below Expectations

Economics Research 14 August 2026 | 9:27AM EDT

USA: Retail Sales Well Below Expectations; Lowering Q3 GDP Tracking to +2.2%

BOTTOM LINE: Core retail sales fell 0.4% in July, well below expectations, and the Jan Hatzius | level of core retail sales was revised down 0.4% in June. The sequential weakness is Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

July was likely exaggerated by an early Amazon Prime Day, which normally occurs in David Mericle | July but occurred in June this year: the nonstore retailer category declined 2.2% and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC contributed -0.4pp to core retail sales. Nevertheless, we continue to expect consumer spending growth to slow from the solid pace of 2026H1, as the boost to Alec Phillips | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC consumer cashflow from larger-than-usual tax refunds that supported spending earlier this year fades and the headwind from higher energy prices remains. Ronnie Walker | Smoothing across the Prime Day noise, we estimate that the three-month annualized Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC pace of real core retail sales growth fell to +1.1%. We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking Elsie Peng estimate by 0.5pp to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

US MAP: Pierfrancesco Mei | Retail sales ex-autos -4 (4, -1) Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jessica Rindels KEY NUMBERS: | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Retail sales -0.6% (MoM) for July vs. GS -0.1%, median forecast +0.1%, prior +0.2% Abhay Duggirala | Retail sales ex-autos -0.3% (MoM) for July vs. GS flat, median forecast +0.2%, prior Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC -0.2%

Retail sales ex-autos & gas -0.2% (MoM) for July vs. GS +0.2%, median forecast +0.3%, prior +0.4%

Retail sales core/control -0.4% (MoM) for July vs. GS +0.2%, median forecast +0.3%, prior revised +0.4%

1. Core retail sales (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials, month-over-month seasonally adjusted) fell 0.6% in July, well below expectations. The level of core retail sales was revised down by 0.4% in June, reflecting a -0.18pp downward revision to core retail sales growth in June and a -0.23pp revision to May. Headline retail sales fell 0.6%, also below expectations and reflecting a 1.8% month-over-month decline in auto spending.

2. The sequential weakness is July was likely exaggerated by an early Amazon Prime Day, which normally occurs in July but occurred in June this year: the nonstore retailer category declined 2.2% and contributed -0.4pp to core retail sales. Nevertheless, we continue to expect consumer spending growth to slow from the solid pace of 2026H1, as the boost to consumer cashflow from larger-than-usual tax

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refunds that supported spending earlier this year fades and the headwind from higher energy prices remains. Based on the details of the PCE and CPI reports, we estimate that the three-month annualized pace—which smooths across the Prime Day noise—of real core retail sales growth fell to +1.1% from +4.1% in June.

3. We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). We lowered our past-quarter GDP tracking for Q2 estimate by 0.2pp to +1.3%.

Percent change, 3m annualized Percent change, 3m annualized 8 Real Retail Control Group Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2025 2026

Source: Department of Commerce, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Percent change, month ago Percent change, month ago 3 Retail Sales: Nonstore Retailers 3

-3 -3 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 2025 2026

Source: Department of Commerce, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research