Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA) Update numbers post H1 results

Equity Research 31 July 2026 | 3:17PM BST

Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA): Update numbers post H1 results

We update our Veolia forecasts following H1 2026 results yesterday (July 30th). The Ajay Patel | key highlights were: Goldman Sachs International

Lawrence Lavizani n H1 EBITDA is in line. H1 2026 Revenue was €22,193m compared to €22,048m in | H1 2025, +1.5% at constant scope and FX (ex-energy prices). EBITDA came in at Goldman Sachs International

€3,552m vs €3,367m in H1 2025, which equates to +5.0% at constant scope and Alberto Gandolfi | exchange rates. Q2 EBITDA of €1,786m came broadly in line with our estimate of Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan branch €1,783m. Net income came in at €837m up 10.4% at constant forex. Net financial debt came in at €24.5bn. At the EBITDA line numbers are in line. n Guidance upgraded and now includes Clean Earth. Veolia continues to expect organic EBITDA growth to be between 5-6%. However, the company states that net income Group share is expected to grow 8% at constant forex and including Clean Earth. This compares to 8% growth without Clean Earth, noting that the completed acquisition represents a c.€20m upgrade to our FY26 Net Income estimates. Leverage ratio equal or slightly above 3x with Clean Earth. n Cost cutting and synergies. As of H1, Veolia has now achieved c.56% of the 2026 target of >€350m in efficiency gains and c.22% of the €90m Water Tech merger synergies target for 2027. Veolia also now expect €120m of synergies from Clean Earth by 2027.

n Progress on €2bn+ 2026-28 disposal plan. Over the last 4 years, Veolia has €8bn+ of asset rotation investing in the growth boosters and selling its mature non core assets. The company aims to sell more that €2bn of assets by mid 2028. €0.1bn was closed in H1 2026 (mature solid waste assets in Mexico, industrial cleaning in Belgium) and c.€0.5bn signings expected for 2026. All disposal process launched before year-end. Post results, we adjust our estimates for H1 results and the completion of the Clean Earth acquisition. As a result, we increase our EPS forecasts by c.1.6% on average for 2026-28E.

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Goldman Sachs Veolia Environnement (VIE.PA)

Exhibit 1: We revise our estimates for Veolia € mn 2026E 2027E 2028E Veolia Definition Net Income (Old) 1,762 1,929 2,074 Veolia Definition Net Income (New) 1,789 1,954 2,120 Change 1.5% 1.3% 2.3%

EPS Old EPS New Change 1.1% 1.4% 2.4%

Source: Company Data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Investment Thesis Post the Suez integration, Veolia has transformed itself into a global leader in Environmental Services. We see the company as well-placed to take advantage of long-term structural trends which will require sizable investment. Energy, Waste and Water present a fragmented €1.4tn addressable market, offering ample scope for growth. Veolia generated revenue of c.€44bn in FY 25, with 40% from Water, 35% from Waste and 25% from Energy. We see sizable growth over the coming years, driven by investment and cost-cutting, forecasting an 8% net income CAGR for FY 2025-29.

Valuation & Risks We are Buy rated on Veolia with a 12-month price target of €41. Our price target is based: (1) 35% on a SOTP of €40.8/share (from €40.5/share); and (2) 65% on a P/E valuation of €40.8/share (from €41.2/share). On the P/E valuation, our target P/E is based on a peer average multiple of 16x FY2027E (MtM).

Key risks to our view and price target include (1) weaker economic activity, (2) lower inflation, (3) value destruction from M&A, (4) adverse FX, and (5) fewer contract wins and higher losses.

VIE.PA 12m Price Target: €41.00 Price: €35.80 Upside: 14.5%

Buy GS Forecast 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E Market…