WBC MorningReport30Jul2026

MORNING REPORT Today's economic developments and market movements.

Key themes Data snapshot The US FOMC voted 9-3 FX Last 24 hrs Current Change AUS Interest Rate Swaps Last Change

to keep the fed funds rate TWI 65.2 -0.2% 30 day BBSY 4.40 0.00

unchanged, but the reaction AUD/USD 0.6951 -0.3% 90 day BBSY 4.60 0.00

to Chair Warsh’s press AUD/JPY 113.57 -0.5% 180 day BBSY 4.93 -0.01 conference highlighted a AUD/GBP 0.5200 -0.9% 1 year swap 4.59 -0.03 clear degree of anxiety over AUD/NZD 1.2003 -0.5% 2 year swap 4.53 -0.06 inflation and policy uncertainty AUD/EUR 0.6064 -1.0% 3 year swap 4.49 -0.06 in the market, the lack of AUD/CNH 4.6993 -0.4% 4 year swap 4.54 -0.01 forward guidance leaving AUD/SGD 0.8963 -0.5% 5 year swap 4.57 -0.01 markets to question whether, AUD/HKD 5.4513 -0.3% 6 year swap 4.61 -0.01 or to what degree, the FOMC AUD/CAD 0.9761 -0.7% 7 year swap 4.66 -0.01 will eventually see a need to EUR/USD 1.1465 0.7% 8 year swap 4.72 0.00 hike rates down the track. USD/JPY 163.41 -0.3% 9 year swap 4.77 0.00 USD Index 100.84 -0.6% 10 year swap 4.82 0.00 Share markets sold off, the US dollar tumbled and a Equities Close Change Government Bond Yields Close Change sharp twist steepening of S&P/ASX 200 9,039 1.0% Australia the US yield curve were the S&P 500 7,316 -1.5% 3 year bond 4.49 -0.07 defining moves overnight. Japan Nikkei 61,434 -1.5% 10 year bond 4.92 -0.04 Brent oil prices also surged Hang Seng 25,808 2.0% United States as tensions re-escalate after Euro Stoxx 50 6,249 -0.6% 3-month T Bill 3.67 -0.09 a few days of relative calm – UK FTSE100 10,908 0.3% 2 year bond 4.27 -0.01 President Trump threatening VIX Index 20.66 13.5% 10 year bond 4.68 0.07 to hit Iran “hard” in response Other (10 year yields) to an attempted strike on a Commodities Current Change Germany 3.16 0.06 US base in Jordan. CRB Index 385.49 1.7% Japan 2.77 -0.02

Australia’s Q2 CPI data Gold 4068.22 0.9% UK 5.04 0.09

came in below expectations. Copper 13581 -0.8%

Further rate hikes from the Oil (WTI futures) 84.46 6.6% Sydney Futures Exchange Current Change

RBA this year now look to Coal (coking) 222.50 -0.4% 10 yr bond 5.00 0.05

be off the table, though Coal (thermal) 137.25 3.2% 3 yr bond 4.51 0.02

a hawkish bias will likely Iron Ore 97.45 -0.1% 3 mth bill rate 4.47 0.00

remain. A fireside chat from ACCU 36.13 -4.3% SPI 200 8,945 -0.6%

the RBA’s Chief Economist Data as at 7:30am AEST. Change is from the previous trading day (excluding the SFE, which is the change during the night session). Source: Bloomberg. this morning may provide some more clues. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.

Ryan Wells Today’s key data and events Economist, Westpac Group Time Event Exp Prev P: :00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Jul - 36.6pts E: 11:30 AU Dwelling Approvals Jun -0.5% -1.1% 11:30 AU Export Price Index Q2 0.8% 0.5% Financial Markets 11:30 AU Import Price Index Q2 0.0% 0.1% The US FOMC voted 9–3 to keep the fed funds rate unchanged, 19:00 EZ Economic Confidence Jul 96pts 95pts as widely expected by most analysts. However, the market’s 19:00 EZ GDP Q2 A 0.2% -0.2% reaction to Chair Warsh’s press conference – a weaker dollar, sell-off in stocks and a sharp twist steepening of the yield 19:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Jun 6.2% 6.2% curve – highlighted a clear degree of anxiety over inflation and 21:00 GB BoE Policy Decision 3.75% 3.75% policy uncertainty in the market. The lack of forward guidance 22:30 US Personal Income Jun 0.3% 0.7% leaves the market questioning whether, or to what degree, the 22:30 US Personal Spending Jun 0.3% 0.7% FOMC will eventually see a need to hike rates down the track. 22:30 US PCE Deflator Jun -0.1% 0.4% Meanwhile in Australia, Q2 CPI data came in below 22:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 25/07/2026 200k 187k expectations in Australia, prompting a repricing of the near- 22:30…