Week In Focus 7 11 September 2026

Week In Focus: 7-11 September 2026 Highlights include: US & Chinese Inflation, ECB Policy Announcement, UK GDP • SUN: OPEC+7 meeting, German State Elections (Saxony-Anhalt) • MON: US Labor Day Market Holiday, German Industrial Production (Jul), EZ GDP Final (Q2), EZ Employment Change (Q2) • TUE: US Midterm Primary Elections: New Hampshire, South Korean GDP (Q2), Japanese GDP (Q2), Chinese Trade Balance (Aug), German Trade Balance (Jul) • WED: US Treasury Long-End Bond Buybacks Begin, US Midterm Primary Elections: Rhode Island, Chinese Inflation (Aug), NBP Announcement • THU: ECB Announcement, CBRT Announcement, German Final CPI (Aug), Norwegian CPI (Aug), US PPI (Aug) • FRI: UK GDP (Jul), CBR Announcement, US CPI (Aug), US University of Michigan Survey Prelim (Sep)

WEEK AHEAD OPEC+ MEETING (SUN): The OPEC+ JMMC and OPEC-7 meetings will take place this weekend. Sources suggested no changes to October output targets as the group focuses on market conditions and compliance. The seven producers completed the rollback of their 1.65mln BPD voluntary cuts with September's 188k BPD increase, shifting attention to compensation for prior overproduction and assessments of production capacity ahead of 2027 baseline negotiations. Focus will also remain on Middle East supply and shipping disruptions, alongside readiness to act.

GERMAN STATE ELECTIONS SAXONY-ANHALT (SUN): The first of three significant state elections in September. Previously, the CDU secured 40/97 seats with AfD and Die Linke next on 23 and 12 respectively. Resulting in a black-red-yellow coalition of CDU, SPD and FDP (7 seats), controlling 56/97 state seats. This time, polling has AfD clearly in the lead with 40-43% of the vote, followed by CDU, Die Linke and SPD with around 23%, 13% and 9% respectively. Note, the German system has constituents put forward two votes, the first for a candidate and the second for a party; seats are allocated only to parties that get at least 5% of the second vote. Given polling has BSW, FDP and Grune around that threshold they are ones to watch, particularly as FDP and Grune currently hold 13 seats. Given current voting intentions, it would benefit AfD if one/both of those parties do not meet the threshold; theoretically, this could be enough to give AfD an outright majority in the state - particularly if SPD comes in much weaker than the c. 9% the polls suggest. For Germany itself, an AfD majority would see a far-right party, and one deemed extremist by the intelligence apparatus, in charge of a state for the first time in the modern era, and could be a precursor for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (note, Die Linke leads in Berlin, the other upcoming state election) and Europe more generally over the next year. However, while it will add to the pressure on the German Grand coalition nationally, it will not change the power balance or impact economic/fiscal policy.

SWEDISH CPIF (MON): CPIF is seen edging higher in August, SEB predicts. CPIF Y/Y is expected to rise to 0.8% (prev. 0.7%), while the core component is seen rising to 0.7% Y/Y (prev. 0.6%). Both metrics would remain just above the Riksbank's own forecast, although the gap would be narrower than in the July report. Given that the Riksbank drew attention to the surge in inflation during the summer months, a hawkish report will keep policymakers wary. Nonetheless, most sell-side analysts believe that the Bank will keep rates on hold for the remainder of the year.

JAPANESE GDP Q2 (TUE): Japanese Q2 GDP is expected to be revised higher to 0.4% Q/Q (prev. 0.3%) and 1.6% annualised (prev. 1.1%), largely reflecting stronger capital expenditure data. Corporate investment has remained resilient amid robust profits and demand linked to AI and data-centre infrastructure, while private consumption is expected to remain subdued amid elevated living costs.

CHINESE TRADE DATA (TUE): China's trade surplus is expected to narrow to USD 108.6bln in August (prev. USD 112.5bln), with exports expected to remain robust amid continued front-loading of shipments ahead of potential tariffs, while imports are expected to remain subdued amid weak domestic demand. Attention will be on whether export strength can be…