Weekly Global

10 August 2026, 11:49 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

What to watch in the week ahead Weekly Global Mark Haefele, Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, UBS Switzerland AG

• Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz contributed to a sharp Middle East diplomacy and fall in oil prices last week, although Brent recovered on Thursday and commodities Friday as important questions remained unresolved. Investors will assess • For a preview of the main events in the whether the proposed agreement can provide safe and reliable passage week ahead, including developments in through the waterway. the US-Iran conflict, listen to our weekly Jump Start podcast. • Strong corporate profits and softer employment data helped the S&P 500 rise 3.6% last week, the best weekly performance since April. July • Read What is next for commodities?, a inflation will be the principal US data test this week, alongside retail UBS House View Briefcase examining sales, consumer sentiment, and Fed commentary. how Middle East uncertainty affects energy, industrial metals, agricultural • Corporate results reinforced the opportunities created by investment in commodities, and gold. AI infrastructure, electrification, and health care innovation. Results from major power and eye-care companies will provide fresh evidence on • For a broader perspective on the impact demand this week. We continue to favor diversified exposure across our of the Middle East conflict on markets, Artificial intelligence, Power and resources, and Longevity opportunities. click here.

• Read about the drivers of gold’s Can diplomacy deliver a durable solution in the Middle East? recovery, central-bank demand, real Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict gained momentum last week. yields, the US dollar, and the broader Iran and Oman reached an understanding “in principle” over the Strait of implications of AI-related power Hormuz, while US President Donald Trump said negotiations were “moving infrastructure and geopolitical risk here. along.” Optimism over progress contributed to a sharp fall in oil prices early in the week. Brent crude subsequently rose 3.8% on Thursday and 1.3% Global earnings and equity on Friday as investors became more cautious about whether an agreement opportunities could be finalized and implemented, although it still ended the week 7.3% • For our latest thoughts on the lower. broadening of earnings growth, see our latest House View Daily. Important obstacles remain. Iranian lawmakers have discussed proposals including restrictions on US- and Israeli-linked shipping, compensation • Read more on how to diversify beyond tech in US equities. from countries Iran considers hostile, and a fee structure covering services such as insurance and environmental costs. The proposed arrangement • Read more about the broadening was also reported to include Iranian management over vessels entering opportunity set for investors in China. the Strait, with exits overseen jointly by Iran and Oman. Investors will assess whether the final terms are acceptable to the US, whether Iran’s AI infrastructure and health care negotiators can ensure compliance, and whether the arrangement provides • Listen to CIO Americas and Global Head safe and reliable passage, reduces the risk of further military action, and of Equities Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi allows energy flows to normalize. discussing AI's impact on the economy in her latest Signal over Noise podcast A durable agreement could remove more of the geopolitical premium on Apple or Spotify. from oil and ease concerns that energy costs will prolong inflation. That would allow investors to focus more fully on economic and earnings • Deputy Head CIO Equities APAC Delwin Limas' AI avatar examines the recent fundamentals, supporting our positive view on equities. In addition, we semiconductor sell-off and whether it favor a diversified commodity approach, since geopolitical developments represents a warning sign for the AI can have very different effects across the asset class. An eventual

This report has been prepared by UBS Switzerland AG. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of…