WMM 13 Oct 2026 Pricing fiscal risk

Weekly Markets Monitor 13 October 2026

All data as of most recent Friday close unless otherwise stated

What you need to know – Pricing fiscal risk Highlights C.O.T.W: Pricing fiscal risk • Global markets faced heightened geopolitical risks and signs of slowing growth. Middle East tensions lifted energy prices, while the US eased sanctions on Russian diesel. Meanwhile, US fiscal 30-year government bond term premiums and trade deficits widened, consumer sentiment weakened and Fed minutes were hawkish. In Europe, German activity slowed and UK services softened. In Asia, China’s holiday spending was uneven and the RBI raised rates by 25bps to 5.5%, its first hike in nearly four years.

• Major global stock markets rose over the week, while bond yields edged lower but remained elevated. Oil prices stayed high and the US dollar edged up.

• Recent turmoil in France’s bond market has brought fiscal sustainability concerns back into focus. As budget negotiations begin, French government bond term premiums have climbed to their highest level since the early 2000s. France is not alone: concerns over rising sovereign debt burdens are growing across major economies (C.O.T.W). Against this backdrop, European and US investors have continued to allocate to gold ETFs over the past few months despite recent price weakness, a trend consistent with growing concerns over debt sustainability and rising premiums.

Based on Bloomberg Economics term premiums. Weekly data between 1 January 2020 and 9 October 2026. Sources: Bloomberg, World Gold Council.

*Commodities represented by Bloomberg’s BCOM index TR. Oil is Brent, Dollar is DXY index. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council.