Wolfe Research Meta Muse and Instinct Product Deep Dive + Contribution To META + Benefits Risks

Global Internet ECommerce - Market Overweight Mobility & Delivery - Market Overweight Online Advertising - Market Overweight

Meta Muse and Instinct: Product Deep Dive + Contribution September 14, 2026 To META + Benefits & Risks

The Wolfe Byte Meta's launch of Muse & popularity of Instinct have created fears of platform & marketplace disruption. We est. Muse to offer $30-$50B rev opportunity in the M/LT for Meta. This note discusses: a) how these agents work; b) risks & benefits; & c) why some fears are overdone.

Since Meta's launch of Muse on Sept. 8, and the rising adoption of Instinct, several names within Internet universe have sold off (EXPE -5.4%, BKNG -9.0%, DASH -3.5%, SHOP -8.9%, UBER -5.2%). A large part of this underperformance is due to fears related to agents (like Muse and Instinct) offering a turn-key, easy to use solutions to regular, non- developer users, enabling them to allow agents to take action on their behalf from booking flights, ordering rides, to comparison shopping. Our team used both agents extensively - Muse (available to everyone in the U.S.) and Instinct (invite-only) - to understand how these agents compared to each other, performed against key use cases, and if the fears around the risks they impose on marketplaces (Travel/OTAs, ride-sharing, food delivery, and eCommerce platforms) were valid. What are these agents - Muse and Instinct?: For the first time ever, these are turnkey, ready to use agents that all regular users (non-developers) can simply download and/or activate, allowing agents to take actions on their behalf - i.e. browse mobile web pages + comparison shop + unsubscribe to emails + integrate credit card information and book a ride or plane ticket + place a delivery order. Impact of Muse on Meta - we estimate $30 - $50B revenue opportunity: a) subscription: $30B opportunity M/LT - at 5% of 3B users subscribing at $20/month; b) take rate model: Assuming 5% of global eCommerce penetration (ex- China) and a 3% - 5% take rate implies M/HSD $B revenue. Meta's current advantages are clear: a) Data - decades of user data across the world on personal preferences; b) Distribution - 3B+ users across apps; c) First mover advantage - no competing consumer agents from OAI or Google. That said consumer trust with Meta is lower than Google as it relates to credit card information - per our prelim survey results. Google (and OAI + Anthropic) will likely release similar agents. Similarities between Muse and Instinct: Both agents are: a) OpenClaw-like; b) offer turnkey solutions; c) take action immediately for users; and d) are text based. Differences between Muse & Instinct: a) Muse is free to use (up-to a limit and then subscription prices apply) and can be downloaded via app in the U.S. Instinct is invite-only and global; b) Muse is a fully-functioning app with several features and Instinct is set up via a text message conversation in WhatsApp or SMS via phone with email functionality. Continued on page 3.

Shweta Khajuria Kenneth Wu Isaac Lustig Andrew Northcutt View Shweta’s Research View Comp Table

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COMPANY TICKER RATING PT % UPSIDE Amazon.com Inc. AMZN OP $315 22.7% Instacart CART PP NA Chewy Inc. CHWY OP $28 37.0% DoorDash Inc. DASH OP $270 33.7% eBay Inc. EBAY PP NA Etsy Inc. ETSY PP NA Lyft Inc. LYFT PP NA Meta Platforms Inc. META OP $700 8.0% Shopify Inc. SHOP PP NM Uber Technologies UBER OP $85 18.6% Source: Wolfe Research OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform, UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated Priced as of 09/11/26

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