World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, October 2026 (WASDE 676)

World Agricultural Supply ISSN: 1554-9089 and Demand Estimates Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service

WASDE - 676 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board October 9, 2026

WHEAT: The outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, reduced exports, and greater ending stocks. Supplies are raised by 8 million bushels on higher imports and production. The NASS Small Grains Annual Summary estimated wheat production slightly greater at 1,534 million bushels on an increased yield more than offsetting reduced harvested area. Despite the increase, this remains the smallest U.S. wheat production since 1970. Domestic use is raised 10 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report implied larger-than-previously- expected first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 750 million on lower sales and shipments to date for Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Hard Red Spring that are partially offset by increased White exports. HRW is the largest decline as HRW continues to be uncompetitive in export markets with significantly higher prices than last year. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised by 23 million bushels to 740 million but are still 20 percent below last year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.30 on increased stocks, NASS prices reported to date, and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

This month’s 2026/27 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, greater consumption, reduced trade, and slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are projected up 0.9 million tons to 1,103.9 million on increased beginning stocks mainly for Australia. Global production is only minimally revised with offsetting changes for several countries. EU production is lowered 0.8 million tons to 133.0 million, mostly on a reduction for Germany. Canada and Turkey production are each raised 0.5 million tons to 36.5 million and 23.0 million, respectively, on higher yields. Global consumption is raised 1.2 million tons to 827.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for China and the EU. World trade is 2.8 million tons lower at 209.0 million as reductions for Russia and the United States are only partially offset by increased exports for Argentina and Canada. Russia’s exports are now the lowest in 5 years at 40.0 million tons with logistical disruptions caused by the continuing conflict in the Black Sea region reducing shipments to date well below their long-term average. Projected 2026/27 global ending stocks are fractionally lower at 276.0 million tons with decreases for the EU, China, Argentina, Egypt, and several other countries nearly offset by increases for Russia, Australia, and the United States.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2026/27 are raised 173 million bushels based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is higher as well, up 234 million bushels to 16.0 billion on a 2.7-bushel increase in yield to 181.2 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 88.5 million acres. Total use is increased 125 million bushels to 16.3 billion. Each component of use is increased. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 3.3 billion on increased supplies. With supply increased more than use,

ending stocks rise by 282 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70.

Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 1.0 million tons lower to 1.589 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and use but larger stocks relative to last month with virtually unchanged trade. Foreign corn production is expected to decline, primarily in the EU, the Philippines, and Mexico. EU corn production is lowered on a combination of harvest results and revised government estimates, particularly in France where production is…