Strategy Daily 2026 10 15
- Fed Hike Odds Repricing: Core CPI beat triggered hawkish repricing (2y yields +4.77%→4.95%, 5s30s compressed 56bp→47bp), Fed hike odds at 36%, with swap spreads widening (30y at -63.5bp) and risk-off flows reversing post-CPI.
- Futures-Driven Bull-Flattening: 7-20y sector rallied (2y yields 1.905% vs 5y -5bp, 10y -7.5bp, 20y -8bp) amid futures extension, confirming price action driven by futures flows—not strong cash demand.
- Ultra-Long Lag Confirms Risk-Off: 30y/40y yields (3.980%/4.090%) lagged 20y rally (8bp), with selling across 5y/10y/20y sectors, indicating futures/risk-off led move, not fundamental demand.