Investment bulletin weekly week 40 final
- North Asia Earnings Momentum: Japan leads MSCI earnings momentum (1.4x 1m change in 12m forward earnings), with strong positive revisions across Asia (India, China) signaling robust growth, driven by corporate reforms and high earnings growth in Korea/Taiwan/Japan.
- Fed Rate & Energy Geopolitics Risk: Fed expected to hike 25bps in Dec 2023 (35-40% chance of another Q1 2024 hike); energy supply shock risk if Iran-US truce fails, impacting USD strength and global market flows.
- Regional Flow Divergence: Japan (Nikkei +2.93%) outperforms EM Asia ex-Japan (-1.3%) and global indices (MSCI World -0.73%), with JPY strengthening (+0.36%) amid risk-off flows, dollar strength (DXY +1.0%), and bond declines (Global Govt Bonds -0.5%).