JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing: Futs higher with AI Infra boosting Tech; Thoughts into CPI; CPI Scenario Analysis
- **CPI Data & Fed Policy Catalyst**: Core CPI MoM +0.22% (2.5% YoY) critical for September Fed hike assessment; SPX sensitivity shows >0.30% MoM → 1.5-2.5% decline, <0.15% MoY → 1-2% gain.
- **Earnings Momentum & AI Impact**: 80% S&P 500 companies growing earnings; blended EPS beat 29.2% (vs.
- 7% 5-yr avg), AI driving 180bp avg margin gains (25 firms).
- **Geopolitical Risk Events**: US-China AI talks (Sep), Trump-Xi trade truce expiry (Nov 1), and US midterms (Nov 3) introduce policy uncertainty and volatility.