GSGoldman SachsSell-side卖方
LATAM Today
- Brazil Copom Policy Update: 25bp rate cut to Selic 13.75%, neutral stance with data-dependent policy; demand-driven inflation persists despite moderation, supply shocks (oil/climate) and election outcome critical for next move - Key Risks: Unanchored inflation expectations, geopolitical tensions (Middle East), election outcome, high oil prices, rising Dollar yields—directly impacting commodity flows and policy trajectory - Mexico Retail Sales Miss: Jul retail sales declined 0.1% mom sa vs.
- +0.1% consensus (annual growth 1.8% yoy vs. 1% consensus), signaling weak consumption momentum amid domestic/external uncertainty - Inflation Policy Alignment: Mexico’s headline inflation (4.3% Dec-26) and policy rate (8.25% Dec-26) decelerated in line with prior peak (10.2% inflation, 11.45% rate), but Goldman Sachs’ forecast overestimation post-Jun-22 indicates misaligned rate expectations - Brazil Inflation Risks: Producer price inflation acceleration and services sector resilience pose upside risks; supply constraints (oil/climate) and demand stimulus could trigger second-round effects despite headline moderation