JPM International Market Intelligence Morning Briefing Aug 7
- **US-Japan EPS Divergence**: US companies beat EPS 88% (vs Japan 71%), but Japan’s EPS growth (64%) exceeds US (25%), signaling structural shift—US focus on beat frequency, Japan on growth magnitude.
- **Big Tech Debt Vulnerability**: Amazon/Alphabet dominate $350B+ multi-currency borrowing (2025+), exposing FX risk and capital allocation strain amid Yen weakness.
- **Hormuz Supply Shock**: 12.6 mbd supply loss (Mar-Jul) vs 5.2 mbd demand loss, with 644M bbl inventory draws, driving immediate energy tightness and price pressure.
- **Geopolitical Inflation Floor**: Conflict (energy/supply shocks), rearmament (fiscal demand), and fragmentation (trade frictions) collectively create persistent inflation floor.