JPM US Market Intelligence | Morning Briefing
- **Memory Scarcity Risk**: Micron confirms demand exceeds supply (>50% shortfall), creating persistent scarcity for memory-intensive semiconductors—critical supply constraint driving AI/tech pricing power.
- **GPU/TPU Allocation Risk**: NVDA/GOOGL shipments constrained by Hynix/Samsung/Micron HBM/memory allocation; breaking LTAs risks next-cycle production cuts, with firms unlikely to accept penalties.
- **Fed Minutes & PCE Thresholds**: Bull case dovish (PCE MoM <0.25%, YoY <3.35%) vs.
- bear case hawkish (PCE MoM >0.3%, YoY >3.4%); Fed Minutes key for rate trajectory clarity.