Positive context积极背景
Stocks股票 / Consumer Disc. / AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. · Consumer Disc.
AAP US listed · USD美股 · 美元
Advance Auto Parts is an American automotive aftermarket parts provider. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, it serves professional installer and do it yourself (DIY) customers.Advance Auto Parts 是一家美国汽车售后零部件供应商，总部位于北卡罗来纳州罗利市，服务于专业安装商和DIY客户。
Mid cap中盘 · $2B
Consumer Disc.
S&P 600标普600小盘Russell 2000罗素2000
Distressed困境股
$41.73
+$0.30 · +0.72%
52w low52周低 $37.39high高 $64.26
Hold off — timing against you暂缓 — 时机不利
Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。
As of 2026-09-28截至 2026-09-28
Company intelligence公司情报
The latest call, in context把最新财报放回历史脉络
A synthesized event record across management commentary and recorded metrics. Read as context; verify exact wording in the transcript before relying.综合管理层表述与记录指标形成事件档案。仅供参考；使用前请在电话会原文中核对准确措辞。
Live company record实时公司记录
JavaScript loads the source-bounded event record here. Open Terminal if the live module does not start.JavaScript 会在此加载受来源约束的事件记录。如实时模块未启动，请打开终端。
Continue with full transcript history继续查看完整电话会历史 ↗Pressure context压力背景
History mode历史模式
Context only仅供参考 · not a signal or recommendation不构成信号或建议
Narrative claims may await line-level citation; verify in the transcript.叙述性内容可能仍待逐行引用，请在电话会原文中核对。
Price chart价格图表
daily · interactive日线 · 可交互
Open in Terminal打开终端 ↗
Loading chart…图表加载中…
The interactive chart could not load here.互动图表暂时无法在此加载。
Open the live chart in Terminal在终端中打开实时图表 ↗
Candles, volume and moving averages — pan and zoom inside the chart.蜡烛图、成交量与均线 — 图内可缩放拖动。
MMastermind Terminal — live & interactiveMastermind 终端 — 实时互动 ↗
Technicals技术面
daily bars日线数据 · 2026-09-28
Momentum (RSI 14)动量（RSI 14）
40
Depressed偏低
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-15.3% below下方
Below trend跌破趋势
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-19.1% below下方
Long trend down长期向下
Volatility波动率
9th percentile第9百分位
These readings feed the stance at the top — one source per number, refreshed nightly.以上读数构成页首的引擎立场 — 每个数字只有一个来源，每晚更新。
Earnings财务业绩
next report下次财报 2026-10-2931
Estimates being cut预期下调
Beat expectations 4 quarters in a row连续 4 季度超预期
EPS surprise vs consensus, last quarters每股收益相对预期的超预期幅度（近几个季度） · average平均 64.7%
Valuation估值
Roughly fair vs sector相对行业估值合理| Multiple指标 | AAP | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（历史） | 56.90x | 18.46 | |
| P/B市净率 | 1.14x | 2.74 | |
| P/S市销率 | 0.29x | 1.20 | |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.76% | 5.13 | |
| FCF yield自由现金流收益率 | -11.90% | 5.92 | |
| EV/EBITDA企业价值/EBITDA | 12.20x | 10.56 |
"Cheaper than" = share of sector peers trading richer on that multiple.「相对便宜」= 行业中该指标估值更高的同行占比。
Financials财务数据
fiscal years财年Revenue营业收入
$8.6B2026
20202026
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -3.2%
Earnings per share每股收益
$0.732026
20202026
5-yr growth5年复合增速 -36.6%
Free cash flow自由现金流
-$298.0M2026
20202026
Gross margin毛利率
43.4%
Operating margin营业利润率
-0.5%
Net margin净利率
0.5%
FCF margin自由现金流利润率
-0.5%
Balance-sheet quality财务体质 4/9
Bankruptcy risk: distress zone破产风险：警戒区
Return on equity股本回报率 2%
Warning警示
Leverage杠杆
Net debt / EBITDA净债务/EBITDA1.26
Current ratio流动比率1.75
Capital allocation资本配置
Stock-based comp股权薪酬$36.0M
Share count change (1y)股数变化（1年）+0.0%
Debt coming due到期债务
FY2026 10-KIn the 12-month bucket following fiscal period end 2026-01-03, it reported $0 due — about 0% of its disclosed principal.在财年期末 2026-01-03 之后12个月的区间内，已披露到期本金为 $0，约占其披露本金的 0%。
All maturity buckets are measured from fiscal period end 2026-01-03, not from today.所有到期区间均从财年期末 2026-01-03 起算，而非从今天起算。
First 12 months after period end报告期末之后首12个月
$0
Year 2第2年
$350.0M
Year 3第3年
$300.0M
Year 4第4年
$0
Year 5第5年
$1.5B
After year 55年以后
$1.3B
Cash reported at 2026-01-03: $3123000000.截至 2026-01-03 披露的现金：$3123000000。 At the cash-burn pace reported over 2024-12-29 to 2026-01-03, that cash represented about 125.8 months. This scenario excludes debt payments and future financing.按 2024-12-29 至 2026-01-03 期间披露的现金消耗速度，该现金约对应 125.8 个月。此情景不包括债务偿还与未来融资。
The filing reports zero principal in the 12-month bucket following 2026-01-03; a cash coverage ratio does not apply.文件披露 2026-01-03 之后12个月区间的到期本金为零，因此现金覆盖比率不适用。
Sources and cash-flow calculation来源与现金流计算
Figures are XBRL facts from one filing — no two years are mixed. Filing数据取自同一份文件中的 XBRL 事实，不跨文件拼接。文件
0001193125-26-051305, period ending报告期截至 2026-01-03, unit单位 USD.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-20T09:35:06.727548+00:00.
6/6 buckets reported.个区间有披露。
LongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInNextTwelveMonthsLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearTwoLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearThreeLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFourLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalInYearFiveLongTermDebtMaturitiesRepaymentsOfPrincipalAfterYearFive
Annual period年度区间 2024-12-29 — 2026-01-03 · USD · 10-K · 0001193125-26-051305 · Filed提交日期 2026-02-13.
Cache acquired缓存获取时间: 2026-09-20T09:35:06.727548+00:00 · Evaluated as of评估截至 2026-09-28.
- Reported operating cash flow已披露经营活动现金流: $-46000000
- Reported equipment spending (capex outflow)已披露设备支出（资本开支流出）: $252000000
- Derived free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex)计算所得自由现金流（经营现金流减资本开支）: $-298000000
Cash is the reported balance at period end. The runway scenario holds this annual cash-flow pace constant and excludes debt payments, restricted-cash adjustments and future financing.现金为期末已披露余额。现金跑道情景假设本年度现金流速度保持不变，不包括债务偿还、受限现金调整与未来融资。
Research context only — reported figures from SEC filings, not a rating, a signal or investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 数据摘自 SEC 文件披露口径，不构成评级、信号或投资建议。
Why is it moving为何波动
6 checks · nightly六项检查 · 每晚
Macro宏观
Long-duration name into a restrictive, rising-real-rate regime → rate headwind.长久期标的进入偏紧、实际利率上行的环境→利率逆风。
Positioning持仓
Quiet — no confirmed driver平静 — 无明确驱动
Technical技术面
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
Signal history信号历史
engine events引擎事件
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID. Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases). Last cycle was left-translated (topped early) — a bearish structural tell回避。失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 上一周期为左移结构（见顶偏早）——属于看空的结构性信号
Sep 21, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 18, 2026
DOWNTREND → NEARING A LOW下跌趋势 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Sep 16, 2026
NEARING A LOW → DOWNTREND接近低点 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 16, 2026
AAP broke down vs the marketAAP 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $41.90.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$41.90。
Sep 15, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → NEARING A LOW未确认转向 → 接近低点
GET READY准备
Sep 11, 2026
Death cross on AAPAAP 死叉
The 50-day average crossed below the 200-day — a slow, widely-watched bearish trend signal. $44.68.50日均线下穿200日均线 — 一个滞后但广受关注的看空趋势信号。$44.68。
Sep 9, 2026
DOWNTREND → UNCONFIRMED TURN下跌趋势 → 未确认转向
HIGH-RISK · NIMBLE ONLY高风险 · 仅限灵活操作
Sep 9, 2026
AAP daily MACD crossed upAAP 日线MACD上穿
The daily MACD histogram turned positive — fast and noisy, context rather than a standalone trigger. $43.38.日线MACD柱状图转正 — 快速且嘈杂，仅作背景。$43.38。
Sep 8, 2026
UNCONFIRMED TURN → DOWNTREND未确认转向 → 下跌趋势
AVOID回避
Sep 8, 2026
AAP broke down vs the marketAAP 相对市场走弱
Relative strength vs SPY crossed below the 10th percentile of the last 90 days — weakness often leads price. $42.56.相对标普500的强弱下穿近90日的第10百分位 — 走弱常先于价格。$42.56。
Showing the last 15 of显示最近15条，共 273 signals条信号
Company profile公司档案
Advance Auto Parts is an American automotive aftermarket parts provider. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, it serves professional installer and do it yourself (DIY) customers.Advance Auto Parts 是一家美国汽车售后零部件供应商，总部位于北卡罗来纳州罗利市，服务于专业安装商和DIY客户。
Style DNA — how it trades vs the market风格基因 — 相对市场的交易特征
Value价值
Above market高于市场
Profitability盈利能力
Below market低于市场
Quality质量
Below market低于市场
Investment资本投入
Below market低于市场
Low volatility低波动
Below market低于市场
Low market beta低市场敏感度
Below market低于市场
Earnings quality盈利质量
Above market高于市场
Short interest空头兴趣
Above market高于市场
The whole US universe — S&P 1500 and Russell 2000 — read nightly.覆盖标普1500与罗素2000全部成分股 — 每晚更新解读。
Signals, options positioning, smart-money moves and factor DNA — the same engine that wrote this page covers 2,700+ US stocks.信号、期权持仓、聪明钱动向与因子基因 — 撰写本页的引擎覆盖2700多只美股。
Statistics — full detail统计数据 — 完整明细
Valuation vs sector估值对比行业
| Multiple指标 | This stock本股 | Sector median行业中位 | Cheaper than相对便宜 |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing)市盈率（静态） | 56.9× | 18.5× | 6% |
| Price / Book市净率 | 1.1× | 2.7× | 83% |
| Price / Sales市销率 | 0.3× | 1.2× | 91% |
| EV / EBITDAEV/EBITDA | 12.2× | 10.6× | 39% |
| Earnings yield盈利收益率 | 1.8% | 5.1% | 16% |
| Free-cash-flow yield自由现金流收益率 | -1.8% | 8.7% | 2% |
Relative strength相对强度
vs market, 1 month相对大盘（1个月）
17/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 3 months相对大盘（3个月）
5/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 6 months相对大盘（6个月）
17/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
vs market, 12 months相对大盘（12个月）
16/100 — weaker than most弱于多数
Rank in sector行业内排名
#128 / 210
0–100 percentile of total return vs all covered stocks.总回报在全部覆盖股票中的百分位（0–100）。
Price history价格历史
| Period周期 | This stock本股 | S&P 500标普500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Week近1周 | -1.9% | +1.3% |
| 1 Month近1月 | -5.3% | +0.9% |
| 3 Months近3月 | -32.6% | +6.1% |
| 6 Months近6月 | -18.7% | +22.3% |
| Year to date年初至今 | +8.4% | +13.8% |
| 1 Year近1年 | -29.2% | +18.5% |
| 3 Years近3年 | -19.7% | +87.8% |
Trading information交易信息
Beta vs market贝塔
1.23
Volatility rank波动率分位
9th pctile
Short interest空头占比
17.2% of float
Market cap市值
$2B
EPS (trailing)每股收益
$0.73
Off 52-week high距52周高点
-33.5%
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Financials — full detail财务数据 — 完整明细
Multi-year record多年财务记录
| 20202020 | 20212021 | 20222022 | 20232023 | 20242024 | 20262026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue营业收入 | $10.1B | $11.0B | $11.2B | $11.3B | $9.1B | $8.6B |
| EPS每股收益 | $7.14 | $9.55 | $8.27 | $0.50 | $-5.61 | $0.73 |
| Free cash flow自由现金流 | $702M | $823M | $298M | $45M | $-96M | $-298M |
| Gross margin毛利率 | 44.3% | 44.8% | 44.5% | 40.1% | 37.5% | 43.4% |
| Net margin净利率 | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | -3.7% | 0.5% |
| FCF margin自由现金流利润率 | 6.9% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% | -1.1% | -3.5% |
Latest fiscal year最近财年
Revenue (FY)营业收入（财年）
$8.6B
Gross profit毛利润
$3.7B
Net income净利润
$44M
Operating cash flow经营现金流
$-46M
Total assets总资产
$11.8B
Shareholder equity股东权益
$2.2B
Long-term debt长期负债
$3.4B
Shares outstanding总股本
0.06B
Returns & growth回报与增长
Return on equity股本回报率
2.0%
Return on assets资产回报率
0.4%
Debt / assets负债/资产
28.9%
Asset growth资产增速
+9.5%
Accounting quality checks会计质量检查
- Earnings quality: accruals trending up over 6 fiscal years — earnings increasingly not cash-backed盈利质量：应计利润在 6 个财年间走高——盈利的现金支撑减弱
- Working capital: working capital roughly in line with sales营运资本：营运资本与销售大致同步
- Pricing power: gross margin −0.9pts over 6 years定价能力：毛利率 6 年下降 0.9 个百分点
- Capital discipline: investment near the peer median资本纪律：投资力度接近同业中位
- Balance sheet: Altman Z 1.68 — distress zone资产负债表：Altman Z 1.68——困境区
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Technicals — full detail技术面 — 完整明细
Indicator readings指标读数
RSI (14-day)RSI（14日）
40
RSI (2-day)RSI（2日）
58
vs 20-day average相对20日均线
-2.3%
vs 50-day average相对50日均线
-15.3%
vs 200-day average相对200日均线
-19.1%
Golden cross (50>200)金叉（50>200）
not in effect未生效
MACDMACD
above signal位于信号线上方
Timeframe alignment多周期共振
Daily日线
momentum up动能向上
3-day3日线
momentum down — turning up soon动能向下——接近转强
Weekly周线
momentum down动能向下
When daily through monthly point the same way, moves carry further.当日线到月线方向一致时，行情往往更有延续性。
Volatility regime波动状态
Range state波幅状态
CoiledCOILED
Days compressed已压缩天数
6
Range width percentile波幅宽度分位
7/100
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Earnings — full detail财务业绩 — 完整明细
Surprise history超预期历史
| Quarter季度 | Reported实际 | Expected预期 | Surprise超预期 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | $1.03 | $0.81 | +27.2% |
| Mar 2026 | $0.77 | $0.39 | +97.4% |
| Dec 2025 | $0.86 | $0.41 | +109.8% |
| Sep 2025 | $0.92 | $0.74 | +24.3% |
Estimate revisions预期修正
Analysts covering覆盖分析师
17
Estimate direction预期调整方向
mostly cutting多数下调
Estimate change, 90 days预期变化（90天）
-2.9%
Net upgrades, 30 days净上调（30天）
-5
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Ownership — full detail持仓 — 完整明细
Insiders & shorts内部人与空头
Short interest空头占流通盘
17.2%
Days to cover回补天数
6.4
Short interest change空头变化
+5.1%
Recent fund flows近期基金流向
SPDR S&P RetailSPDR S&P Retail
accumulating持续增持
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。
Seasonality — full detail季节性 — 完整明细
Strongest month最强月份
Jan · 100%
Weakest month最弱月份
Oct · 0%
Month by month逐月统计
| Month月份 | Closed higher收涨占比 | Median move中位涨跌 | Years年数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan1月 | 100% | +9.7% | 3 |
| Feb2月 | 67% | +1.8% | 3 |
| Mar3月 | 100% | +6.9% | 3 |
| Apr4月 | 33% | -14.3% | 3 |
| May5月 | 67% | +3.6% | 3 |
| Jun6月 | 33% | -2.2% | 3 |
| Jul7月 | 67% | +1.1% | 3 |
| Aug8月 | 50% | +2.5% | 4 |
| Sep9月 | 25% | -0.5% | 4 |
| Oct10月 | 0% | -7.5% | 3 |
| Nov11月 | 67% | +10.3% | 3 |
| Dec12月 | 67% | +14.1% | 3 |
History is a tendency, not a promise — small samples wobble.历史规律只是倾向而非保证 — 样本少时波动大。
Research context only — refreshed nightly. Not investment advice.仅供研究参考 — 每晚更新，不构成投资建议。